The model missed the final outcome (Nagykanizsai ULE win 0–1).
The model had projected BVSC at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 BVSC Nagykanizsai ULE ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BVSC | 41.4% | 54.8% | -13.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.7% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Nagykanizsai ULE | 29.2% | 19.5% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates BVSC's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Nagykanizsai ULE win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about BVSC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned BVSC; match finished Nagykanizsai ULE
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on BVSC by 13.3 percentage points (54.8% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · BVSC 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Nagykanizsai ULE 29.3%
- xG · BVSC 1.43 — Nagykanizsai ULE 1.17
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · BVSC 1.65 · Draw 3.51 · Nagykanizsai ULE 4.63
- Implied 1X2 · BVSC 54.8% · Draw 25.7% · Nagykanizsai ULE 19.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · BVSC 1.65 · Draw 3.51 · Nagykanizsai ULE 4.63
- Implied 1X2 · BVSC 54.8% · Draw 25.7% · Nagykanizsai ULE 19.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Nagykanizsai ULE win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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NB II — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksar | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Kecskeméti TE | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Tiszakecske FC | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Ajka | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Kazincbarcikai | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Gyirmot SE | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Mezokovesd-zsory | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Karcag SE | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Szentlőrinc SE | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fehérvár FC | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Diosgyori VTK | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Szeged 2011 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | BVSC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Kozarmisleny FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Csakvar | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksar | 8 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 20 |
| 2 | Tiszakecske FC | 8 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Kecskeméti TE | 8 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Kazincbarcikai | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Karcag SE | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Gyirmot SE | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Mezokovesd-zsory | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Fehérvár FC | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Ajka | 7 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Szentlőrinc SE | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Diosgyori VTK | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Csakvar | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 |
| 13 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Szeged 2011 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Kozarmisleny FC | 8 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | BVSC | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
