Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB II / Diosgyori VTK vs BVSC

Prediction Audit: Diosgyori VTK vs BVSC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Diosgyori VTK Diosgyori VTK
Aug 29, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.21
2 1.39
xG Accuracy: 61%
BVSC BVSC

AI correctly predicted the BVSC win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 BVSC BVSC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Diosgyori VTK higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Diosgyori VTK -22.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Diosgyori VTK 31.0% 53.2% -22.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 25.0% +4.5 pp Aligned
BVSC 39.5% 21.8% +17.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Diosgyori VTK's win probability at 53.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 22.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (BVSC win 0–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced BVSC higher (61.7% vs model 39.5%, 22.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (BVSC win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Diosgyori VTK 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · BVSC 39.5%
    • xG · Diosgyori VTK 1.21 — BVSC 1.39
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 15:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Diosgyori VTK 1.70 · Draw 3.62 · BVSC 4.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Diosgyori VTK 53.2% · Draw 25.0% · BVSC 21.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Diosgyori VTK 1.70 · Draw 3.62 · BVSC 4.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Diosgyori VTK 53.2% · Draw 25.0% · BVSC 21.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result BVSC win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5152536

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result BVSC win · Diosgyori VTK 0–2 BVSC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: Diosgyori VTK vs BVSC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Diosgyori VTK 1.21 — BVSC 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Soroksar 8 6 2 0 20
2 Kecskeméti TE 8 5 2 1 17
3 Tiszakecske FC 8 4 4 0 16
4 Ajka 7 4 2 1 14
5 Kazincbarcikai 8 3 4 1 13
6 Gyirmot SE 8 4 1 3 13
7 Mezokovesd-zsory 7 4 0 3 12
8 Karcag SE 8 2 5 1 11
9 Szentlőrinc SE 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fehérvár FC 8 3 0 5 9
11 Nagykanizsai ULE 8 3 0 5 9
12 Diosgyori VTK 7 2 1 4 7
13 Szeged 2011 7 1 3 3 6
14 BVSC 7 1 1 5 4
15 Kozarmisleny FC 8 1 1 6 4
16 Csakvar 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Soroksar 8 23 7 +16 20
2 Tiszakecske FC 8 17 10 +7 16
3 Kecskeméti TE 8 15 8 +7 17
4 Kazincbarcikai 8 13 11 +2 13
5 Karcag SE 8 13 11 +2 11
6 Gyirmot SE 8 13 14 -1 13
7 Mezokovesd-zsory 7 11 8 +3 12
8 Fehérvár FC 8 11 11 0 9
9 Ajka 7 9 6 +3 14
10 Szentlőrinc SE 7 8 9 -1 10
11 Diosgyori VTK 7 8 15 -7 7
12 Csakvar 8 8 19 -11 4
13 Nagykanizsai ULE 8 7 10 -3 9
14 Szeged 2011 7 6 8 -2 6
15 Kozarmisleny FC 8 6 16 -10 4
16 BVSC 7 4 9 -5 4