The model missed the final outcome (Mezokovesd-zsory win 1–2).
The model had projected Fehérvár FC at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fehérvár FC Mezokovesd-zsory ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fehérvár FC | 37.5% | 46.7% | -9.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.4% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Mezokovesd-zsory | 32.9% | 23.9% | +8.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Fehérvár FC's win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Mezokovesd-zsory win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Fehérvár FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Fehérvár FC; match finished Mezokovesd-zsory
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fehérvár FC by 9.2 percentage points (46.7% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fehérvár FC 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Mezokovesd-zsory 32.9%
- xG · Fehérvár FC 1.35 — Mezokovesd-zsory 1.25
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fehérvár FC 1.94 · Draw 3.08 · Mezokovesd-zsory 3.76
- Implied 1X2 · Fehérvár FC 46.6% · Draw 29.4% · Mezokovesd-zsory 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fehérvár FC 1.96 · Draw 3.12 · Mezokovesd-zsory 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Fehérvár FC 46.7% · Draw 29.4% · Mezokovesd-zsory 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mezokovesd-zsory win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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NB II — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksar | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Kecskeméti TE | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Tiszakecske FC | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Ajka | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Kazincbarcikai | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Gyirmot SE | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Mezokovesd-zsory | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Karcag SE | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Szentlőrinc SE | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fehérvár FC | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Diosgyori VTK | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Szeged 2011 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | BVSC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Kozarmisleny FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Csakvar | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksar | 8 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 20 |
| 2 | Tiszakecske FC | 8 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Kecskeméti TE | 8 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Kazincbarcikai | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Karcag SE | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Gyirmot SE | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Mezokovesd-zsory | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Fehérvár FC | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Ajka | 7 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Szentlőrinc SE | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Diosgyori VTK | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Csakvar | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 |
| 13 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Szeged 2011 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Kozarmisleny FC | 8 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | BVSC | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
