Prediction Audit: Kozarmisleny FC vs Szeged 2011 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kozarmisleny FC

Aug 22, 2026 - 15:30

1 1.38

2 1.22

xG Accuracy: 73%

Szeged 2011

The model missed the final outcome (Szeged 2011 win 1–2).

The model had projected Kozarmisleny FC at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Kozarmisleny FC Szeged 2011 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Kozarmisleny FC	39.0%	28.5%	+10.5 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.5%	28.3%	+1.2 pp	Aligned
Szeged 2011	31.5%	43.2%	-11.8 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Szeged 2011's win probability at 43.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Szeged 2011 win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Szeged 2011 than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Kozarmisleny FC; match finished Szeged 2011

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kozarmisleny FC by 11.8 percentage points (50.8% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kozarmisleny FC 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Szeged 2011 31.5%
- xG · Kozarmisleny FC 1.38 — Szeged 2011 1.22
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kozarmisleny FC 3.17 · Draw 3.20 · Szeged 2011 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · Kozarmisleny FC 28.6% · Draw 28.3% · Szeged 2011 43.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kozarmisleny FC 3.22 · Draw 3.24 · Szeged 2011 2.12
- Implied 1X2 · Kozarmisleny FC 28.5% · Draw 28.3% · Szeged 2011 43.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Szeged 2011 win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100

Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4236103

Closing Odds 2.12

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Szeged 2011 win · Kozarmisleny FC 1–2 Szeged 2011

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: NB II
Fixture: Kozarmisleny FC vs Szeged 2011
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Kozarmisleny FC 1.38 — Szeged 2011 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Soroksar	8	6	2	0	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	8	5	2	1	17
3	Tiszakecske FC	8	4	4	0	16
4	Ajka	7	4	2	1	14
5	Kazincbarcikai	8	3	4	1	13
6	Gyirmot SE	8	4	1	3	13
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	7	4	0	3	12
8	Karcag SE	8	2	5	1	11
9	Szentlőrinc SE	7	3	1	3	10
10	Fehérvár FC	8	3	0	5	9
11	Nagykanizsai ULE	8	3	0	5	9
12	Diosgyori VTK	7	2	1	4	7
13	Szeged 2011	7	1	3	3	6
14	BVSC	7	1	1	5	4
15	Kozarmisleny FC	8	1	1	6	4
16	Csakvar	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Soroksar	8	23	7	+16	20
2	Tiszakecske FC	8	17	10	+7	16
3	Kecskeméti TE	8	15	8	+7	17
4	Kazincbarcikai	8	13	11	+2	13
5	Karcag SE	8	13	11	+2	11
6	Gyirmot SE	8	13	14	-1	13
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	7	11	8	+3	12
8	Fehérvár FC	8	11	11	0	9
9	Ajka	7	9	6	+3	14
10	Szentlőrinc SE	7	8	9	-1	10
11	Diosgyori VTK	7	8	15	-7	7
12	Csakvar	8	8	19	-11	4
13	Nagykanizsai ULE	8	7	10	-3	9
14	Szeged 2011	7	6	8	-2	6
15	Kozarmisleny FC	8	6	16	-10	4
16	BVSC	7	4	9	-5	4