Prediction Audit: Kazincbarcikai vs Kozarmisleny FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kazincbarcikai

Aug 15, 2026 - 15:30

2 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 77%

Kozarmisleny FC

AI correctly predicted the Kazincbarcikai win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Kazincbarcikai Kazincbarcikai ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Kazincbarcikai	36.1%	54.2%	-18.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	24.5%	+5.2 pp	Model Higher
Kozarmisleny FC	34.2%	21.4%	+12.9 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Kazincbarcikai's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 18.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kazincbarcikai win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kazincbarcikai than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kazincbarcikai higher (54.2% vs model 36.1%, 18.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kazincbarcikai win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kazincbarcikai 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Kozarmisleny FC 34.2%
- xG · Kazincbarcikai 1.32 — Kozarmisleny FC 1.28
Aug 15, 2026 · 15:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Kazincbarcikai 1.67 · Draw 3.70 · Kozarmisleny FC 4.24
- Implied 1X2 · Kazincbarcikai 54.2% · Draw 24.5% · Kozarmisleny FC 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kazincbarcikai 1.67 · Draw 3.70 · Kozarmisleny FC 4.24
- Implied 1X2 · Kazincbarcikai 54.2% · Draw 24.5% · Kozarmisleny FC 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Kazincbarcikai win · 2–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (18 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3361384

Closing Odds 1.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Kazincbarcikai win · Kazincbarcikai 2–1 Kozarmisleny FC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: NB II
Fixture: Kazincbarcikai vs Kozarmisleny FC
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Kazincbarcikai 1.32 — Kozarmisleny FC 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Soroksar	8	6	2	0	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	8	5	2	1	17
3	Tiszakecske FC	8	4	4	0	16
4	Ajka	7	4	2	1	14
5	Kazincbarcikai	8	3	4	1	13
6	Gyirmot SE	8	4	1	3	13
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	7	4	0	3	12
8	Karcag SE	8	2	5	1	11
9	Szentlőrinc SE	7	3	1	3	10
10	Fehérvár FC	8	3	0	5	9
11	Nagykanizsai ULE	8	3	0	5	9
12	Diosgyori VTK	7	2	1	4	7
13	Szeged 2011	7	1	3	3	6
14	BVSC	7	1	1	5	4
15	Kozarmisleny FC	8	1	1	6	4
16	Csakvar	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Soroksar	8	23	7	+16	20
2	Tiszakecske FC	8	17	10	+7	16
3	Kecskeméti TE	8	15	8	+7	17
4	Kazincbarcikai	8	13	11	+2	13
5	Karcag SE	8	13	11	+2	11
6	Gyirmot SE	8	13	14	-1	13
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	7	11	8	+3	12
8	Fehérvár FC	8	11	11	0	9
9	Ajka	7	9	6	+3	14
10	Szentlőrinc SE	7	8	9	-1	10
11	Diosgyori VTK	7	8	15	-7	7
12	Csakvar	8	8	19	-11	4
13	Nagykanizsai ULE	8	7	10	-3	9
14	Szeged 2011	7	6	8	-2	6
15	Kozarmisleny FC	8	6	16	-10	4
16	BVSC	7	4	9	-5	4