Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB II / Csakvar vs Kozarmisleny FC

Prediction Audit: Csakvar vs Kozarmisleny FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Csakvar Csakvar
Aug 09, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Kozarmisleny FC Kozarmisleny FC

The model missed the final outcome (Csakvar win 2–0).

The model had projected Kozarmisleny FC at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kozarmisleny FC Csakvar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Csakvar -3.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Csakvar 34.7% 38.3% -3.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 28.7% +1.0 pp Aligned
Kozarmisleny FC 35.6% 33.0% +2.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Csakvar win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Kozarmisleny FC; match finished Csakvar

Market lesson

The full-time result was Csakvar win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Csakvar 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Kozarmisleny FC 35.6%
    • xG · Csakvar 1.29 — Kozarmisleny FC 1.31
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Csakvar 2.21 · Draw 2.95 · Kozarmisleny FC 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Csakvar 38.3% · Draw 28.7% · Kozarmisleny FC 33.0%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Csakvar 2.21 · Draw 2.95 · Kozarmisleny FC 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Csakvar 38.3% · Draw 28.7% · Kozarmisleny FC 33.0%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Csakvar win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 28/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2966972

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Csakvar win · Csakvar 2–0 Kozarmisleny FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: Csakvar vs Kozarmisleny FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Csakvar 1.29 — Kozarmisleny FC 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming NB II Matches Track Csakvar Next Match Prediction Track Kozarmisleny FC Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Csakvar & Kozarmisleny FC!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Soroksar 7 6 1 0 19
2 Tiszakecske FC 7 4 3 0 15
3 Kecskeméti TE 7 4 2 1 14
4 Kazincbarcikai 7 3 4 0 13
5 Gyirmot SE 7 4 1 2 13
6 Ajka 6 3 2 1 11
7 Karcag SE 7 2 4 1 10
8 Fehérvár FC 7 3 0 4 9
9 Mezokovesd-zsory 6 3 0 3 9
10 Szentlőrinc SE 6 2 1 3 7
11 Szeged 2011 6 1 3 2 6
12 Nagykanizsai ULE 7 2 0 5 6
13 BVSC 6 1 1 4 4
14 Diosgyori VTK 6 1 1 4 4
15 Csakvar 7 1 1 5 4
16 Kozarmisleny FC 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Soroksar 7 20 4 +16 19
2 Tiszakecske FC 7 14 7 +7 15
3 Kecskeméti TE 7 14 8 +6 14
4 Gyirmot SE 7 13 12 +1 13
5 Kazincbarcikai 7 12 7 +5 13
6 Karcag SE 7 12 10 +2 10
7 Fehérvár FC 7 11 10 +1 9
8 Ajka 6 8 6 +2 11
9 Csakvar 7 8 18 -10 4
10 Mezokovesd-zsory 6 7 7 0 9
11 Szeged 2011 6 6 7 -1 6
12 Szentlőrinc SE 6 6 8 -2 7
13 Nagykanizsai ULE 7 6 10 -4 6
14 Diosgyori VTK 6 6 15 -9 4
15 Kozarmisleny FC 7 5 15 -10 3
16 BVSC 6 3 7 -4 4