Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Sportist Svoge vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Prediction Audit: Sportist Svoge vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sportist Svoge Sportist Svoge
Sep 07, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 49%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Sportist Svoge at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sportist Svoge Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa +8.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sportist Svoge 37.5% 44.9% -7.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 30.6% -1.0 pp Aligned
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 32.9% 24.5% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.5%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sportist Svoge by 8.4 percentage points (29.1% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 07, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sportist Svoge 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 32.9%
    • xG · Sportist Svoge 1.35 — Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.25
  2. Sep 07, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sportist Svoge 2.16 · Draw 2.83 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Sportist Svoge 41.1% · Draw 31.4% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 27.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 07, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sportist Svoge 2.00 · Draw 2.94 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Sportist Svoge 44.9% · Draw 30.6% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 07, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 58/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6472353

Closing Odds 3.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sportist Svoge 0–0 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Sportist Svoge vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-07 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Sportist Svoge 1.35 — Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.9% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 6 3 2 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 17
8 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 4 4 3 16
9 Yantra 2019 11 5 1 5 16
10 Hebar 1918 11 4 2 5 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 11
16 Sportist Svoge 11 2 4 5 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 11 25 11 +14 24
2 Hebar 1918 11 24 19 +5 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 11 23 9 +14 23
4 Nesebar 11 20 17 +3 17
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 18 8 +10 21
6 Fratria 11 17 8 +9 22
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
8 Beroe 11 16 12 +4 18
9 Rilski Sportist 11 14 10 +4 18
10 Montana 11 13 23 -10 11
11 Yantra 2019 11 12 11 +1 16
12 Dobrudzha 11 12 18 -6 9
13 Marek 11 11 12 -1 14
14 Spartak Pleven 11 11 22 -11 13
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 9 10 -1 16
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 11 7 10 -3 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 4 33 -29 0