Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918

Prediction Audit: Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Spartak Pleven Spartak Pleven
Sep 07, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 52%
Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918

AI correctly predicted the Spartak Pleven win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Spartak Pleven Spartak Pleven ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Hebar 1918 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hebar 1918 -7.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Spartak Pleven 38.5% 32.1% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.7% +0.9 pp Aligned
Hebar 1918 31.9% 39.2% -7.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hebar 1918's win probability at 39.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Spartak Pleven win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hebar 1918. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Spartak Pleven higher (45.8% vs model 38.5%, 7.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Spartak Pleven win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 07, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Spartak Pleven 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Hebar 1918 31.9%
    • xG · Spartak Pleven 1.37 — Hebar 1918 1.23
  2. Sep 07, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Spartak Pleven 2.77 · Draw 3.10 · Hebar 1918 2.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Spartak Pleven 32.1% · Draw 28.7% · Hebar 1918 39.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 07, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Spartak Pleven 2.77 · Draw 3.10 · Hebar 1918 2.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Spartak Pleven 32.1% · Draw 28.7% · Hebar 1918 39.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 07, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Spartak Pleven win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6473011

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spartak Pleven win · Spartak Pleven 3–2 Hebar 1918
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-07 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Spartak Pleven 1.37 — Hebar 1918 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 9 6 3 0 21
2 CSKA Sofia II 9 5 2 2 17
3 Yantra 2019 9 5 1 3 16
4 Fratria 8 4 3 1 15
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 9 4 3 2 15
6 Beroe 9 4 3 2 15
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 9 4 2 3 14
8 Marek 9 4 1 4 13
9 Nesebar 8 4 1 3 13
10 Rilski Sportist 9 3 3 3 12
11 Ludogorets II 8 3 2 3 11
12 Montana 9 3 2 4 11
13 Hebar 1918 9 3 2 4 11
14 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 8 3 2 3 11
15 Spartak Pleven 9 3 1 5 10
16 Sportist Svoge 9 1 4 4 7
17 Dobrudzha 9 1 3 5 6
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 9 21 8 +13 21
2 CSKA Sofia II 9 19 8 +11 17
3 Hebar 1918 9 18 17 +1 11
4 Nesebar 8 15 11 +4 13
5 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 9 15 15 0 14
6 Montana 9 13 16 -3 11
7 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 9 12 6 +6 15
8 Beroe 9 12 8 +4 15
9 Yantra 2019 9 12 9 +3 16
10 Fratria 8 11 6 +5 15
11 Marek 9 10 9 +1 13
12 Rilski Sportist 9 10 9 +1 12
13 Spartak Pleven 9 10 19 -9 10
14 Dobrudzha 9 9 14 -5 6
15 Ludogorets II 8 8 8 0 11
16 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 8 7 9 -2 11
17 Sportist Svoge 9 4 7 -3 7
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 9 3 30 -27 0
Second League Bulgaria. Second League Predictions