Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Dobrudzha

Prediction Audit: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Dobrudzha Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Sep 03, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.07
0 1.53
xG Accuracy: 51%
Dobrudzha Dobrudzha

The model missed the final outcome (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win 2–0).

The model had projected Dobrudzha at 46.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dobrudzha Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa -17.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 25.0% 42.1% -17.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.7% 28.2% +0.5 pp Aligned
Dobrudzha 46.3% 29.7% +16.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's win probability at 42.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.0%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Dobrudzha; match finished Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dobrudzha by 17.1 percentage points (63.4% vs model 46.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 03, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Dobrudzha 46.3%
    • xG · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.07 — Dobrudzha 1.53
  2. Sep 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2.10 · Draw 3.13 · Dobrudzha 2.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 42.1% · Draw 28.2% · Dobrudzha 29.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 03, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2.10 · Draw 3.13 · Dobrudzha 2.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 42.1% · Draw 28.2% · Dobrudzha 29.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5733938

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2–0 Dobrudzha
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Dobrudzha
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.3%
  • xG (showing): Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.07 — Dobrudzha 1.53 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Dobrudzha
  • Model: 46.3% · Implied: 29.7% · Probability edge: +16.7 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 6 3 2 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 17
8 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 4 4 3 16
9 Yantra 2019 11 5 1 5 16
10 Hebar 1918 11 4 2 5 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 11
16 Sportist Svoge 11 2 4 5 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 11 25 11 +14 24
2 Hebar 1918 11 24 19 +5 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 11 23 9 +14 23
4 Nesebar 11 20 17 +3 17
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 18 8 +10 21
6 Fratria 11 17 8 +9 22
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
8 Beroe 11 16 12 +4 18
9 Rilski Sportist 11 14 10 +4 18
10 Montana 11 13 23 -10 11
11 Yantra 2019 11 12 11 +1 16
12 Dobrudzha 11 12 18 -6 9
13 Marek 11 11 12 -1 14
14 Spartak Pleven 11 11 22 -11 13
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 9 10 -1 16
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 11 7 10 -3 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 4 33 -29 0