Prediction Audit: Montana vs Marek Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Montana

Aug 16, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.45

0 1.15

xG Accuracy: 64%

Marek

AI correctly predicted the Montana win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Montana Montana ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Montana	42.4%	52.9%	-10.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.3%	27.1%	+2.1 pp	Aligned
Marek	28.4%	19.9%	+8.4 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Montana's win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Montana win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Montana than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Montana higher (53.0% vs model 42.4%, 10.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Montana win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Montana 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Marek 28.4%
- xG · Montana 1.45 — Marek 1.15
Aug 16, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Montana 1.68 · Draw 3.28 · Marek 4.46
- Implied 1X2 · Montana 52.9% · Draw 27.1% · Marek 19.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Montana 1.68 · Draw 3.28 · Marek 4.46
- Implied 1X2 · Montana 52.9% · Draw 27.1% · Marek 19.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Montana win · 1–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 47/100

Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3612907

Closing Odds 1.68

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Montana win · Montana 1–0 Marek

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Second League
Fixture: Montana vs Marek
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
xG (showing): Montana 1.45 — Marek 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vihren	11	7	3	1	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	7	2	2	23
3	Fratria	11	6	4	1	22
4	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	6	3	2	21
5	Beroe	11	5	3	3	18
6	Rilski Sportist	11	5	3	3	18
7	Nesebar	11	5	2	4	17
8	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	4	4	3	16
9	Yantra 2019	11	5	1	5	16
10	Hebar 1918	11	4	2	5	14
11	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	10	4	2	4	14
12	Marek	11	4	2	5	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	4	1	6	13
14	Ludogorets II	10	3	3	4	12
15	Montana	11	3	2	6	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	2	4	5	10
17	Dobrudzha	11	2	3	6	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	0	0	11	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vihren	11	25	11	+14	24
2	Hebar 1918	11	24	19	+5	14
3	CSKA Sofia II	11	23	9	+14	23
4	Nesebar	11	20	17	+3	17
5	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	18	8	+10	21
6	Fratria	11	17	8	+9	22
7	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	10	17	19	-2	14
8	Beroe	11	16	12	+4	18
9	Rilski Sportist	11	14	10	+4	18
10	Montana	11	13	23	-10	11
11	Yantra 2019	11	12	11	+1	16
12	Dobrudzha	11	12	18	-6	9
13	Marek	11	11	12	-1	14
14	Spartak Pleven	11	11	22	-11	13
15	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	9	10	-1	16
16	Ludogorets II	10	9	10	-1	12
17	Sportist Svoge	11	7	10	-3	10
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	4	33	-29	0