Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Fratria

Prediction Audit: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Fratria Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Aug 09, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.14
2 1.46
xG Accuracy: 63%
Fratria Fratria

AI correctly predicted the Fratria win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fratria Fratria ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Fratria higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Fratria -9.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 27.9% 21.4% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.2% 26.1% +3.1 pp Aligned
Fratria 42.9% 52.6% -9.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Fratria's win probability at 52.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Fratria win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Fratria. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fratria higher (52.6% vs model 42.9%, 9.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fratria win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Fratria 42.9%
    • xG · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.14 — Fratria 1.46
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 4.16 · Draw 3.41 · Fratria 1.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 21.4% · Draw 26.1% · Fratria 52.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 4.16 · Draw 3.41 · Fratria 1.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 21.4% · Draw 26.1% · Fratria 52.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Fratria win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 51/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2966953

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fratria win · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 0–2 Fratria
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Fratria
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.9%
  • xG (showing): Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.14 — Fratria 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 6 3 2 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 17
8 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 4 4 3 16
9 Yantra 2019 11 5 1 5 16
10 Hebar 1918 11 4 2 5 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 11
16 Sportist Svoge 11 2 4 5 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 11 25 11 +14 24
2 Hebar 1918 11 24 19 +5 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 11 23 9 +14 23
4 Nesebar 11 20 17 +3 17
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 18 8 +10 21
6 Fratria 11 17 8 +9 22
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
8 Beroe 11 16 12 +4 18
9 Rilski Sportist 11 14 10 +4 18
10 Montana 11 13 23 -10 11
11 Yantra 2019 11 12 11 +1 16
12 Dobrudzha 11 12 18 -6 9
13 Marek 11 11 12 -1 14
14 Spartak Pleven 11 11 22 -11 13
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 9 10 -1 16
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 11 7 10 -3 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 4 33 -29 0