Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / CSKA Sofia II vs Hebar 1918

Prediction Audit: CSKA Sofia II vs Hebar 1918 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia II CSKA Sofia II
Aug 11, 2026 - 15:00
4 1.46
3 1.14
xG Accuracy: 30%
Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918

AI correctly predicted the CSKA Sofia II win.

The match finished 4–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CSKA Sofia II CSKA Sofia II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices CSKA Sofia II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: CSKA Sofia II -13.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CSKA Sofia II 42.9% 56.1% -13.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 24.1% +5.2 pp Model Higher
Hebar 1918 27.9% 19.9% +8.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates CSKA Sofia II's win probability at 56.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 13.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (CSKA Sofia II win 4–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about CSKA Sofia II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced CSKA Sofia II higher (56.1% vs model 42.9%, 13.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (CSKA Sofia II win 4–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 11, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CSKA Sofia II 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Hebar 1918 27.9%
    • xG · CSKA Sofia II 1.46 — Hebar 1918 1.14
  2. Aug 11, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CSKA Sofia II 1.57 · Draw 3.66 · Hebar 1918 4.43
    • Implied 1X2 · CSKA Sofia II 56.1% · Draw 24.1% · Hebar 1918 19.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 11, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · CSKA Sofia II 1.57 · Draw 3.66 · Hebar 1918 4.43
    • Implied 1X2 · CSKA Sofia II 56.1% · Draw 24.1% · Hebar 1918 19.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 11, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CSKA Sofia II win · 4–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 33/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3017812

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CSKA Sofia II win · CSKA Sofia II 4–3 Hebar 1918
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: CSKA Sofia II vs Hebar 1918
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-11 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): CSKA Sofia II 1.46 — Hebar 1918 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 6 3 2 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 17
8 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 4 4 3 16
9 Yantra 2019 11 5 1 5 16
10 Hebar 1918 11 4 2 5 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 11
16 Sportist Svoge 11 2 4 5 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 11 25 11 +14 24
2 Hebar 1918 11 24 19 +5 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 11 23 9 +14 23
4 Nesebar 11 20 17 +3 17
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 18 8 +10 21
6 Fratria 11 17 8 +9 22
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
8 Beroe 11 16 12 +4 18
9 Rilski Sportist 11 14 10 +4 18
10 Montana 11 13 23 -10 11
11 Yantra 2019 11 12 11 +1 16
12 Dobrudzha 11 12 18 -6 9
13 Marek 11 11 12 -1 14
14 Spartak Pleven 11 11 22 -11 13
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 9 10 -1 16
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 11 7 10 -3 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 4 33 -29 0