Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Ludogorets II vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Prediction Audit: Ludogorets II vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ludogorets II Ludogorets II
Aug 03, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 81%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

AI correctly predicted the Ludogorets II win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ludogorets II Ludogorets II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ludogorets II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ludogorets II -16.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ludogorets II 40.9% 57.5% -16.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 25.1% +4.3 pp Aligned
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 29.7% 17.4% +12.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ludogorets II's win probability at 57.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ludogorets II win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ludogorets II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ludogorets II higher (57.5% vs model 40.9%, 16.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ludogorets II win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ludogorets II 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 29.6%
    • xG · Ludogorets II 1.42 — Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.18
  2. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ludogorets II 1.51 · Draw 3.46 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 4.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Ludogorets II 57.5% · Draw 25.1% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 17.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ludogorets II 1.51 · Draw 3.46 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 4.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Ludogorets II 57.5% · Draw 25.1% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 17.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ludogorets II win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2132711

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ludogorets II win · Ludogorets II 2–1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Ludogorets II vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Ludogorets II 1.42 — Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 6 3 2 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 17
8 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 4 4 3 16
9 Yantra 2019 11 5 1 5 16
10 Hebar 1918 11 4 2 5 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 11
16 Sportist Svoge 11 2 4 5 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 11 25 11 +14 24
2 Hebar 1918 11 24 19 +5 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 11 23 9 +14 23
4 Nesebar 11 20 17 +3 17
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 18 8 +10 21
6 Fratria 11 17 8 +9 22
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
8 Beroe 11 16 12 +4 18
9 Rilski Sportist 11 14 10 +4 18
10 Montana 11 13 23 -10 11
11 Yantra 2019 11 12 11 +1 16
12 Dobrudzha 11 12 18 -6 9
13 Marek 11 11 12 -1 14
14 Spartak Pleven 11 11 22 -11 13
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 9 10 -1 16
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 11 7 10 -3 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 4 33 -29 0