Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Yantra 2019

Prediction Audit: Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Yantra 2019 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Etar Veliko Tarnovo Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Aug 03, 2026 - 15:45
2 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 72%
Yantra 2019 Yantra 2019

The model missed the final outcome (Etar Veliko Tarnovo win 2–1).

The model had projected Yantra 2019 at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yantra 2019 Etar Veliko Tarnovo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Etar Veliko Tarnovo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Etar Veliko Tarnovo -23.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31.0% 54.2% -23.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 25.3% +4.2 pp Aligned
Yantra 2019 39.5% 20.5% +19.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 23.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Etar Veliko Tarnovo win 2–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Yantra 2019; match finished Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Yantra 2019 by 23.2 percentage points (62.7% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 03, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Yantra 2019 39.5%
    • xG · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.21 — Yantra 2019 1.39
  2. Aug 03, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.71 · Draw 3.39 · Yantra 2019 4.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 51.9% · Draw 26.1% · Yantra 2019 22.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 03, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.64 · Draw 3.52 · Yantra 2019 4.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 54.2% · Draw 25.3% · Yantra 2019 20.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 03, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Etar Veliko Tarnovo win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2131618

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Etar Veliko Tarnovo win · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–1 Yantra 2019
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Yantra 2019
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.21 — Yantra 2019 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 6 3 2 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 17
8 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 4 4 3 16
9 Yantra 2019 11 5 1 5 16
10 Hebar 1918 11 4 2 5 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 11
16 Sportist Svoge 11 2 4 5 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 11 25 11 +14 24
2 Hebar 1918 11 24 19 +5 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 11 23 9 +14 23
4 Nesebar 11 20 17 +3 17
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 18 8 +10 21
6 Fratria 11 17 8 +9 22
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
8 Beroe 11 16 12 +4 18
9 Rilski Sportist 11 14 10 +4 18
10 Montana 11 13 23 -10 11
11 Yantra 2019 11 12 11 +1 16
12 Dobrudzha 11 12 18 -6 9
13 Marek 11 11 12 -1 14
14 Spartak Pleven 11 11 22 -11 13
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 9 10 -1 16
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 11 7 10 -3 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 4 33 -29 0