Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Nesebar vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Prediction Audit: Nesebar vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nesebar Nesebar
Jul 25, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.21
5 1.39
xG Accuracy: 35%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo Etar Veliko Tarnovo

AI correctly predicted the Etar Veliko Tarnovo win.

The match finished 1–5, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Etar Veliko Tarnovo Etar Veliko Tarnovo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Etar Veliko Tarnovo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Etar Veliko Tarnovo -9.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nesebar 31.0% 26.7% +4.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 24.5% +5.0 pp Model Higher
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 39.5% 48.8% -9.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Etar Veliko Tarnovo's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Etar Veliko Tarnovo win 1–5).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Etar Veliko Tarnovo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Etar Veliko Tarnovo higher (48.9% vs model 39.5%, 9.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Etar Veliko Tarnovo win 1–5).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nesebar 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 39.5%
    • xG · Nesebar 1.21 — Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.39
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nesebar 3.31 · Draw 3.61 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Nesebar 26.7% · Draw 24.5% · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 48.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nesebar 3.31 · Draw 3.61 · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Nesebar 26.7% · Draw 24.5% · Etar Veliko Tarnovo 48.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Etar Veliko Tarnovo win · 1–5
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 53/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456375

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Etar Veliko Tarnovo win · Nesebar 1–5 Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Bulgarian Second League
  • Fixture: FC Nesebar vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): FC Nesebar 1.21 — Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 6 3 2 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 17
8 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 4 4 3 16
9 Yantra 2019 11 5 1 5 16
10 Hebar 1918 11 4 2 5 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 11
16 Sportist Svoge 11 2 4 5 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 11 25 11 +14 24
2 Hebar 1918 11 24 19 +5 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 11 23 9 +14 23
4 Nesebar 11 20 17 +3 17
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 18 8 +10 21
6 Fratria 11 17 8 +9 22
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
8 Beroe 11 16 12 +4 18
9 Rilski Sportist 11 14 10 +4 18
10 Montana 11 13 23 -10 11
11 Yantra 2019 11 12 11 +1 16
12 Dobrudzha 11 12 18 -6 9
13 Marek 11 11 12 -1 14
14 Spartak Pleven 11 11 22 -11 13
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 9 10 -1 16
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 11 7 10 -3 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 4 33 -29 0