Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Prediction Audit: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Jul 25, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.22
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 85%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 38.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas +1.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 32.0% 32.7% -0.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 30.2% -0.6 pp Aligned
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 38.4% 37.1% +1.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Chernomorets 1919 Burgas; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:38 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 38.5%
    • xG · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.22 — Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.38
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2.72 · Draw 2.94 · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 32.7% · Draw 30.2% · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 37.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2.72 · Draw 2.94 · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 32.7% · Draw 30.2% · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 37.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 93/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456631

Closing Odds 2.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Bulgarian Second League
  • Fixture: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.22 — Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 6 3 2 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 17
8 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 4 4 3 16
9 Yantra 2019 11 5 1 5 16
10 Hebar 1918 11 4 2 5 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 11
16 Sportist Svoge 11 2 4 5 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 11 25 11 +14 24
2 Hebar 1918 11 24 19 +5 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 11 23 9 +14 23
4 Nesebar 11 20 17 +3 17
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 18 8 +10 21
6 Fratria 11 17 8 +9 22
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
8 Beroe 11 16 12 +4 18
9 Rilski Sportist 11 14 10 +4 18
10 Montana 11 13 23 -10 11
11 Yantra 2019 11 12 11 +1 16
12 Dobrudzha 11 12 18 -6 9
13 Marek 11 11 12 -1 14
14 Spartak Pleven 11 11 22 -11 13
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 9 10 -1 16
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 11 7 10 -3 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 4 33 -29 0