Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola Pro / Hassania Agadir vs Kawkab Marrakech

Prediction Audit: Hassania Agadir vs Kawkab Marrakech Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hassania Agadir Hassania Agadir
Jul 05, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.11
1 1.09
xG Accuracy: 95%
Kawkab Marrakech Kawkab Marrakech

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Hassania Agadir at 34.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hassania Agadir Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hassania Agadir higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hassania Agadir -13.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hassania Agadir 34.2% 47.6% -13.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 32.6% 30.3% +2.4 pp Aligned
Kawkab Marrakech 33.2% 22.1% +11.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Hassania Agadir's win probability at 47.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hassania Agadir than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Hassania Agadir; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hassania Agadir by 13.4 percentage points (47.6% vs model 34.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 05, 2026 · 20:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hassania Agadir 34.2% · Draw 32.6% · Kawkab Marrakech 33.2%
    • xG · Hassania Agadir 1.11 — Kawkab Marrakech 1.09
  2. Jul 05, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hassania Agadir 1.85 · Draw 2.91 · Kawkab Marrakech 3.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Hassania Agadir 47.6% · Draw 30.3% · Kawkab Marrakech 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 05, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hassania Agadir 1.85 · Draw 2.91 · Kawkab Marrakech 3.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Hassania Agadir 47.6% · Draw 30.3% · Kawkab Marrakech 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 05, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 32/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1602277

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Hassania Agadir 1–1 Kawkab Marrakech
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Botola Pro
  • Fixture: Hassania Agadir vs Kawkab Marrakech
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Hassania Agadir 1.11 — Kawkab Marrakech 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.2)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Botola Pro Botola Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maghreb Fès 30 16 11 3 59
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 16 9 5 57
3 Raja Casablanca 30 16 8 6 56
4 FAR Rabat 30 13 16 1 55
5 Wydad AC 30 13 4 13 43
6 Difaa EL Jadida 30 9 13 8 40
7 Ittihad Tanger 30 9 12 9 39
8 FUS Rabat 30 9 10 11 37
9 Kawkab Marrakech 30 8 12 10 36
10 CODM Meknès 30 9 9 12 36
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 8 9 13 33
12 Hassania Agadir 30 8 9 13 33
13 UTS Rabat 30 6 13 11 31
14 Yacoub El Mansour 30 7 9 14 30
15 Olympique Dcheïra 30 7 9 14 30
16 Olympique Safi 30 3 13 14 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FAR Rabat 30 45 22 +23 55
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 44 27 +17 57
3 Maghreb Fès 30 40 17 +23 59
4 Raja Casablanca 30 39 19 +20 56
5 Wydad AC 30 39 33 +6 43
6 Yacoub El Mansour 30 34 44 -10 30
7 UTS Rabat 30 32 40 -8 31
8 FUS Rabat 30 31 36 -5 37
9 Difaa EL Jadida 30 30 34 -4 40
10 Olympique Dcheïra 30 29 40 -11 30
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 28 37 -9 33
12 Kawkab Marrakech 30 27 26 +1 36
13 Ittihad Tanger 30 27 31 -4 39
14 Hassania Agadir 30 27 39 -12 33
15 CODM Meknès 30 24 33 -9 36
16 Olympique Safi 30 24 42 -18 22
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