Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola Pro / FUS Rabat vs Yacoub El Mansour

Prediction Audit: FUS Rabat vs Yacoub El Mansour Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FUS Rabat FUS Rabat
Jul 05, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.12
1 1.08
xG Accuracy: 72%
Yacoub El Mansour Yacoub El Mansour

The model missed the final outcome (Yacoub El Mansour win 0–1).

The model had projected FUS Rabat at 34.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FUS Rabat Yacoub El Mansour ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Yacoub El Mansour higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Yacoub El Mansour -6.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FUS Rabat 34.7% 33.7% +1.0 pp Aligned
Draw 32.6% 27.1% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Yacoub El Mansour 32.7% 39.2% -6.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Yacoub El Mansour's win probability at 39.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.7%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Yacoub El Mansour win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Yacoub El Mansour. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FUS Rabat; match finished Yacoub El Mansour

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FUS Rabat by 6.5 percentage points (41.2% vs model 34.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 05, 2026 · 20:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FUS Rabat 34.7% · Draw 32.6% · Yacoub El Mansour 32.7%
    • xG · FUS Rabat 1.12 — Yacoub El Mansour 1.08
  2. Jul 05, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FUS Rabat 2.64 · Draw 3.28 · Yacoub El Mansour 2.27
    • Implied 1X2 · FUS Rabat 33.7% · Draw 27.1% · Yacoub El Mansour 39.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 05, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FUS Rabat 2.64 · Draw 3.28 · Yacoub El Mansour 2.27
    • Implied 1X2 · FUS Rabat 33.7% · Draw 27.1% · Yacoub El Mansour 39.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 05, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Yacoub El Mansour win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 21:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2538334

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yacoub El Mansour win · FUS Rabat 0–1 Yacoub El Mansour
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Botola Pro
  • Fixture: FUS Rabat vs Yacoub El Mansour
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): FUS Rabat 1.12 — Yacoub El Mansour 1.08 (total xG ≈ 2.2)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Botola Pro Botola Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maghreb Fès 30 16 11 3 59
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 16 9 5 57
3 Raja Casablanca 30 16 8 6 56
4 FAR Rabat 30 13 16 1 55
5 Wydad AC 30 13 4 13 43
6 Difaa EL Jadida 30 9 13 8 40
7 Ittihad Tanger 30 9 12 9 39
8 FUS Rabat 30 9 10 11 37
9 Kawkab Marrakech 30 8 12 10 36
10 CODM Meknès 30 9 9 12 36
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 8 9 13 33
12 Hassania Agadir 30 8 9 13 33
13 UTS Rabat 30 6 13 11 31
14 Yacoub El Mansour 30 7 9 14 30
15 Olympique Dcheïra 30 7 9 14 30
16 Olympique Safi 30 3 13 14 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FAR Rabat 30 45 22 +23 55
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 44 27 +17 57
3 Maghreb Fès 30 40 17 +23 59
4 Raja Casablanca 30 39 19 +20 56
5 Wydad AC 30 39 33 +6 43
6 Yacoub El Mansour 30 34 44 -10 30
7 UTS Rabat 30 32 40 -8 31
8 FUS Rabat 30 31 36 -5 37
9 Difaa EL Jadida 30 30 34 -4 40
10 Olympique Dcheïra 30 29 40 -11 30
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 28 37 -9 33
12 Kawkab Marrakech 30 27 26 +1 36
13 Ittihad Tanger 30 27 31 -4 39
14 Hassania Agadir 30 27 39 -12 33
15 CODM Meknès 30 24 33 -9 36
16 Olympique Safi 30 24 42 -18 22
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