The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Hércules at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Hércules Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hércules | 38.0% | 53.6% | -15.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.9% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Real Jaén | 32.4% | 19.5% | +12.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Hércules's win probability at 53.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Hércules than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Hércules by 15.6 percentage points (53.6% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hércules 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Real Jaén 32.4%
- xG · Hércules 1.36 — Real Jaén 1.24
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hércules 1.73 · Draw 3.45 · Real Jaén 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Hércules 53.6% · Draw 26.9% · Real Jaén 19.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hércules 1.73 · Draw 3.45 · Real Jaén 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Hércules 53.6% · Draw 26.9% · Real Jaén 19.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Alcorcon | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Hércules | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Atlético Madrid II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Antequera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Real Madrid II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Gimnastic | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Ibiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Huesca | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | Águilas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Algeciras | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Europa Fc | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 19 | Teruel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid II | 6 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 | Alcorcon | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Zaragoza | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Real Jaén | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Real Murcia | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Antequera | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Madrid II | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Gimnastic | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Algeciras | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 |
| 13 | Hércules | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Rayo Majadahonda | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 17 | Huesca | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Águilas | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | Europa Fc | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Teruel | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 2 |
