Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Gimnastic vs Sant Andreu

Prediction Audit: Gimnastic vs Sant Andreu Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gimnastic Gimnastic
Sep 26, 2026 - 16:45
1 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 77%
Sant Andreu Sant Andreu

AI correctly predicted the Sant Andreu win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sant Andreu Sant Andreu ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gimnastic higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gimnastic -11.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gimnastic 33.8% 45.6% -11.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.5% +0.2 pp Aligned
Sant Andreu 36.6% 24.9% +11.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Gimnastic's win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sant Andreu win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Gimnastic than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sant Andreu higher (48.4% vs model 36.6%, 11.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sant Andreu win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gimnastic 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Sant Andreu 36.6%
    • xG · Gimnastic 1.27 — Sant Andreu 1.33
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gimnastic 2.01 · Draw 3.11 · Sant Andreu 3.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Gimnastic 45.6% · Draw 29.5% · Sant Andreu 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gimnastic 2.01 · Draw 3.11 · Sant Andreu 3.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Gimnastic 45.6% · Draw 29.5% · Sant Andreu 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sant Andreu win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10115848

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sant Andreu win · Gimnastic 1–2 Sant Andreu
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Gimnastic vs Sant Andreu
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Gimnastic 1.27 — Sant Andreu 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.9% · Probability edge: +3.3 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 4 1 0 13
2 Zaragoza 5 4 0 1 12
3 Real Jaén 4 3 1 0 10
4 Real Murcia 4 3 0 1 9
5 Hércules 5 3 0 2 9
6 Atlético Madrid II 5 2 2 1 8
7 Gimnastic 5 2 1 2 7
8 Sant Andreu 5 2 1 2 7
9 Alcorcon 4 1 3 0 6
10 Ibiza 5 2 0 3 6
11 FC Cartagena 4 1 2 1 5
12 Real Madrid II 4 1 2 1 5
13 Antequera 4 1 2 1 5
14 Águilas 5 1 2 2 5
15 Huesca 4 1 2 1 5
16 Rayo Majadahonda 4 1 1 2 4
17 Algeciras 5 1 1 3 4
18 Juventud Torremolinos 5 0 1 4 1
19 Europa Fc 4 0 1 3 1
20 Teruel 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 12 5 +7 13
2 Atlético Madrid II 5 9 5 +4 8
3 Real Jaén 4 8 3 +5 10
4 Zaragoza 5 8 5 +3 12
5 Real Murcia 4 8 6 +2 9
6 Gimnastic 5 7 7 0 7
7 Ibiza 5 7 8 -1 6
8 Algeciras 5 7 11 -4 4
9 Alcorcon 4 6 3 +3 6
10 Antequera 4 6 6 0 5
11 Juventud Torremolinos 5 6 11 -5 1
12 Hércules 5 5 5 0 9
13 Sant Andreu 5 5 5 0 7
14 Rayo Majadahonda 4 5 5 0 4
15 FC Cartagena 4 4 3 +1 5
16 Águilas 5 4 6 -2 5
17 Real Madrid II 4 3 2 +1 5
18 Huesca 4 3 5 -2 5
19 Europa Fc 4 2 7 -5 1
20 Teruel 4 0 7 -7 1
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions