The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Real Madrid II at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Real Madrid II Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sant Andreu | 31.5% | 34.4% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.9% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Real Madrid II | 39.0% | 36.8% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Real Madrid II; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sant Andreu 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Real Madrid II 39.0%
- xG · Sant Andreu 1.22 — Real Madrid II 1.38
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sant Andreu 2.60 · Draw 3.09 · Real Madrid II 2.43
- Implied 1X2 · Sant Andreu 34.4% · Draw 28.9% · Real Madrid II 36.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sant Andreu 2.60 · Draw 3.09 · Real Madrid II 2.43
- Implied 1X2 · Sant Andreu 34.4% · Draw 28.9% · Real Madrid II 36.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Alcorcon | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Hércules | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Antequera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Gimnastic | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ibiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Huesca | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Madrid II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Águilas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Algeciras | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Europa Fc | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 19 | Teruel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid II | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 |
| 3 | Alcorcon | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Zaragoza | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Real Jaén | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Real Murcia | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Antequera | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Gimnastic | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Ibiza | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Algeciras | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Juventud Torremolinos | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Hércules | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Rayo Majadahonda | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | FC Cartagena | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 16 | Real Madrid II | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 17 | Huesca | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Águilas | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | Europa Fc | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Teruel | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 2 |
