Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Rayo Majadahonda vs Teruel

Prediction Audit: Rayo Majadahonda vs Teruel Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rayo Majadahonda Rayo Majadahonda
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:30
2 1.40
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 61%
Teruel Teruel

AI correctly predicted the Rayo Majadahonda win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rayo Majadahonda Rayo Majadahonda ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Teruel considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Teruel +6.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rayo Majadahonda 39.9% 44.9% -5.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 30.9% -1.4 pp Aligned
Teruel 30.6% 24.2% +6.3 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Teruel's win probability at 30.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.2%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rayo Majadahonda win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Teruel.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rayo Majadahonda more conservatively (33.6% vs model 39.9%, 6.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rayo Majadahonda win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rayo Majadahonda 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Teruel 30.6%
    • xG · Rayo Majadahonda 1.40 — Teruel 1.20
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Rayo Majadahonda 2.04 · Draw 2.97 · Teruel 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Rayo Majadahonda 44.9% · Draw 30.9% · Teruel 24.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rayo Majadahonda 2.04 · Draw 2.97 · Teruel 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Rayo Majadahonda 44.9% · Draw 30.9% · Teruel 24.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rayo Majadahonda win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 68/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8695155

Closing Odds 3.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rayo Majadahonda win · Rayo Majadahonda 2–0 Teruel
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Rayo Majadahonda vs Teruel
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Rayo Majadahonda 1.4 — Teruel 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.3% · Implied: 45.4% · Probability edge: +8.9 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 4 1 0 13
2 Zaragoza 5 4 0 1 12
3 Real Jaén 5 3 1 1 10
4 Alcorcon 5 2 3 0 9
5 Real Murcia 4 3 0 1 9
6 Hércules 5 3 0 2 9
7 Atlético Madrid II 5 2 2 1 8
8 Antequera 5 2 2 1 8
9 Gimnastic 5 2 1 2 7
10 Sant Andreu 5 2 1 2 7
11 Ibiza 5 2 0 3 6
12 Huesca 5 1 3 1 6
13 FC Cartagena 4 1 2 1 5
14 Real Madrid II 5 1 2 2 5
15 Águilas 5 1 2 2 5
16 Rayo Majadahonda 5 1 1 3 4
17 Algeciras 5 1 1 3 4
18 Europa Fc 5 1 1 3 4
19 Teruel 5 0 2 3 2
20 Juventud Torremolinos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 12 5 +7 13
2 Atlético Madrid II 5 9 5 +4 8
3 Alcorcon 5 8 4 +4 9
4 Zaragoza 5 8 5 +3 12
5 Real Jaén 5 8 5 +3 10
6 Real Murcia 4 8 6 +2 9
7 Antequera 5 8 6 +2 8
8 Gimnastic 5 7 7 0 7
9 Ibiza 5 7 8 -1 6
10 Algeciras 5 7 11 -4 4
11 Juventud Torremolinos 5 6 11 -5 1
12 Hércules 5 5 5 0 9
13 Sant Andreu 5 5 5 0 7
14 Rayo Majadahonda 5 5 6 -1 4
15 FC Cartagena 4 4 3 +1 5
16 Real Madrid II 5 4 4 0 5
17 Huesca 5 4 6 -2 6
18 Águilas 5 4 6 -2 5
19 Europa Fc 5 3 7 -4 4
20 Teruel 5 1 8 -7 2
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions