Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Algeciras vs Águilas

Prediction Audit: Algeciras vs Águilas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Algeciras Algeciras
Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Águilas Águilas

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Algeciras at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Algeciras Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Águilas considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Águilas +7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Algeciras 36.1% 41.5% -5.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 31.7% -2.0 pp Aligned
Águilas 34.2% 26.9% +7.4 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Águilas's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.9%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Águilas.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Algeciras; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Algeciras by 7.4 percentage points (28.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Algeciras 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Águilas 34.2%
    • xG · Algeciras 1.32 — Águilas 1.28
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Algeciras 2.21 · Draw 2.89 · Águilas 3.41
    • Implied 1X2 · Algeciras 41.5% · Draw 31.7% · Águilas 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Algeciras 2.21 · Draw 2.89 · Águilas 3.41
    • Implied 1X2 · Algeciras 41.5% · Draw 31.7% · Águilas 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 63/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8660323

Closing Odds 3.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Algeciras 1–1 Águilas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Algeciras vs Águilas
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Algeciras 1.32 — Águilas 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +9.0 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 4 1 0 13
2 Zaragoza 5 4 0 1 12
3 Real Jaén 5 3 1 1 10
4 Alcorcon 5 2 3 0 9
5 Real Murcia 4 3 0 1 9
6 Hércules 5 3 0 2 9
7 Atlético Madrid II 5 2 2 1 8
8 Antequera 5 2 2 1 8
9 Gimnastic 5 2 1 2 7
10 Sant Andreu 5 2 1 2 7
11 Ibiza 5 2 0 3 6
12 Huesca 5 1 3 1 6
13 FC Cartagena 4 1 2 1 5
14 Real Madrid II 5 1 2 2 5
15 Águilas 5 1 2 2 5
16 Rayo Majadahonda 5 1 1 3 4
17 Algeciras 5 1 1 3 4
18 Europa Fc 5 1 1 3 4
19 Teruel 5 0 2 3 2
20 Juventud Torremolinos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 12 5 +7 13
2 Atlético Madrid II 5 9 5 +4 8
3 Alcorcon 5 8 4 +4 9
4 Zaragoza 5 8 5 +3 12
5 Real Jaén 5 8 5 +3 10
6 Real Murcia 4 8 6 +2 9
7 Antequera 5 8 6 +2 8
8 Gimnastic 5 7 7 0 7
9 Ibiza 5 7 8 -1 6
10 Algeciras 5 7 11 -4 4
11 Juventud Torremolinos 5 6 11 -5 1
12 Hércules 5 5 5 0 9
13 Sant Andreu 5 5 5 0 7
14 Rayo Majadahonda 5 5 6 -1 4
15 FC Cartagena 4 4 3 +1 5
16 Real Madrid II 5 4 4 0 5
17 Huesca 5 4 6 -2 6
18 Águilas 5 4 6 -2 5
19 Europa Fc 5 3 7 -4 4
20 Teruel 5 1 8 -7 2
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions