Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Hércules vs Atlético Madrid II

Prediction Audit: Hércules vs Atlético Madrid II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hércules Hércules
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:15
0 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
Atlético Madrid II Atlético Madrid II

The model missed the final outcome (Atlético Madrid II win 0–2).

The model had projected Hércules at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hércules Atlético Madrid II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Hércules higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hércules -9.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hércules 35.6% 45.6% -9.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.8% +1.9 pp Aligned
Atlético Madrid II 34.7% 26.6% +8.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Hércules's win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Atlético Madrid II win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hércules. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hércules by 9.9 percentage points (45.5% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hércules 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Atlético Madrid II 34.7%
    • xG · Hércules 1.31 — Atlético Madrid II 1.29
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hércules 2.01 · Draw 3.30 · Atlético Madrid II 3.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Hércules 45.6% · Draw 27.8% · Atlético Madrid II 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hércules 2.01 · Draw 3.30 · Atlético Madrid II 3.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Hércules 45.6% · Draw 27.8% · Atlético Madrid II 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Atlético Madrid II win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 50/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6369540

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Atlético Madrid II win · Hércules 0–2 Atlético Madrid II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Hércules vs Atlético Madrid II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Hércules 1.31 — Atlético Madrid II 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.5% · Probability edge: +3.7 pts · Est. EV: +2.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 4 1 0 13
2 Zaragoza 5 4 0 1 12
3 Real Jaén 5 3 1 1 10
4 Alcorcon 5 2 3 0 9
5 Real Murcia 4 3 0 1 9
6 Hércules 5 3 0 2 9
7 Atlético Madrid II 5 2 2 1 8
8 Antequera 5 2 2 1 8
9 Gimnastic 5 2 1 2 7
10 Sant Andreu 5 2 1 2 7
11 Ibiza 5 2 0 3 6
12 Huesca 5 1 3 1 6
13 FC Cartagena 4 1 2 1 5
14 Real Madrid II 5 1 2 2 5
15 Águilas 5 1 2 2 5
16 Rayo Majadahonda 5 1 1 3 4
17 Algeciras 5 1 1 3 4
18 Europa Fc 5 1 1 3 4
19 Teruel 5 0 2 3 2
20 Juventud Torremolinos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 12 5 +7 13
2 Atlético Madrid II 5 9 5 +4 8
3 Alcorcon 5 8 4 +4 9
4 Zaragoza 5 8 5 +3 12
5 Real Jaén 5 8 5 +3 10
6 Real Murcia 4 8 6 +2 9
7 Antequera 5 8 6 +2 8
8 Gimnastic 5 7 7 0 7
9 Ibiza 5 7 8 -1 6
10 Algeciras 5 7 11 -4 4
11 Juventud Torremolinos 5 6 11 -5 1
12 Hércules 5 5 5 0 9
13 Sant Andreu 5 5 5 0 7
14 Rayo Majadahonda 5 5 6 -1 4
15 FC Cartagena 4 4 3 +1 5
16 Real Madrid II 5 4 4 0 5
17 Huesca 5 4 6 -2 6
18 Águilas 5 4 6 -2 5
19 Europa Fc 5 3 7 -4 4
20 Teruel 5 1 8 -7 2
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions