Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Barakaldo vs Extremadura 1924

Prediction Audit: Barakaldo vs Extremadura 1924 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Barakaldo Barakaldo
Sep 11, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
Extremadura 1924 Extremadura 1924

AI correctly predicted the Barakaldo win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Barakaldo Barakaldo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Extremadura 1924 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Extremadura 1924 +6.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Barakaldo 38.5% 45.0% -6.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.6% -0.0 pp Aligned
Extremadura 1924 31.9% 25.5% +6.5 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Extremadura 1924's win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.5%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Barakaldo win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Extremadura 1924.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Barakaldo more conservatively (32.0% vs model 38.5%, 6.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Barakaldo win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Barakaldo 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Extremadura 1924 31.9%
    • xG · Barakaldo 1.37 — Extremadura 1924 1.23
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Barakaldo 2.04 · Draw 3.10 · Extremadura 1924 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Barakaldo 45.0% · Draw 29.6% · Extremadura 1924 25.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Barakaldo 2.04 · Draw 3.10 · Extremadura 1924 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Barakaldo 45.0% · Draw 29.6% · Extremadura 1924 25.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Barakaldo win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 67/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7033717

Closing Odds 3.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Barakaldo win · Barakaldo 1–0 Extremadura 1924
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Barakaldo vs Extremadura 1924
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Barakaldo 1.37 — Extremadura 1924 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 47.4% · Probability edge: +7.0 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lugo 5 4 1 0 13
2 Athletic Club II 5 3 2 0 11
3 UD Logroñés 4 3 1 0 10
4 Cacereño 4 3 1 0 10
5 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 2 2 1 8
6 Cultural Leonesa 5 2 2 1 8
7 Real Unión 5 2 1 2 7
8 Mirandes 4 2 1 1 7
9 Pontevedra 4 2 1 1 7
10 Ponferradina 4 2 1 1 7
11 Zamora 5 2 1 2 7
12 Racing Ferrol 5 2 1 2 7
13 CD Coria 5 1 2 2 5
14 Real Avilés 4 1 1 2 4
15 Barakaldo 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mérida AD 4 1 0 3 3
17 Extremadura 1924 5 1 0 4 3
18 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 1 0 3 3
19 Arenas Getxo 5 0 1 4 1
20 UD Ourense 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Unión 5 12 10 +2 7
2 Athletic Club II 5 11 5 +6 11
3 UD Logroñés 4 8 3 +5 10
4 Mirandes 4 8 6 +2 7
5 CD Coria 5 8 9 -1 5
6 Lugo 5 7 2 +5 13
7 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 7 5 +2 8
8 Pontevedra 4 7 5 +2 7
9 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 7 11 -4 3
10 Cacereño 4 6 1 +5 10
11 Zamora 5 6 6 0 7
12 Racing Ferrol 5 5 5 0 7
13 Real Avilés 4 5 5 0 4
14 Cultural Leonesa 5 4 3 +1 8
15 Mérida AD 4 4 6 -2 3
16 Ponferradina 4 3 2 +1 7
17 Arenas Getxo 5 3 13 -10 1
18 Barakaldo 4 2 5 -3 4
19 Extremadura 1924 5 2 5 -3 3
20 UD Ourense 4 1 9 -8 0
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions