Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Barakaldo vs Cultural Leonesa

Prediction Audit: Barakaldo vs Cultural Leonesa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Barakaldo Barakaldo
Aug 30, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.36
0 1.24
xG Accuracy: 49%
Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Barakaldo at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Barakaldo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Barakaldo; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 27, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Barakaldo 1.36 — Cultural Leonesa 1.24
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5298124

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Barakaldo 0–0 Cultural Leonesa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Barakaldo vs Cultural Leonesa
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Barakaldo 1.36 — Cultural Leonesa 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UD Logroñés 6 5 1 0 16
2 Lugo 6 5 1 0 16
3 Racing Ferrol 7 4 1 2 13
4 Cacereño 7 3 3 1 12
5 Athletic Club II 6 3 2 1 11
6 Mirandes 7 3 2 2 11
7 Zamora 7 3 2 2 11
8 Ponferradina 6 3 2 1 11
9 Extremadura 1924 7 3 0 4 9
10 Real Unión 6 2 2 2 8
11 Pontevedra 6 2 2 2 8
12 Deportivo La Coruña II 7 2 2 3 8
13 Cultural Leonesa 6 2 2 2 8
14 Unionistas de Salamanca 7 2 1 4 7
15 Mérida AD 6 2 0 4 6
16 Barakaldo 7 1 3 3 6
17 Real Avilés 6 1 2 3 5
18 CD Coria 7 1 2 4 5
19 UD Ourense 7 1 2 4 5
20 Arenas Getxo 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UD Logroñés 6 15 7 +8 16
2 Real Unión 6 13 11 +2 8
3 Athletic Club II 6 12 8 +4 11
4 Mirandes 7 10 8 +2 11
5 Unionistas de Salamanca 7 10 13 -3 7
6 CD Coria 7 10 15 -5 5
7 Lugo 6 9 3 +6 16
8 Zamora 7 9 7 +2 11
9 Extremadura 1924 7 9 8 +1 9
10 Real Avilés 6 9 10 -1 5
11 Mérida AD 6 9 11 -2 6
12 Racing Ferrol 7 8 5 +3 13
13 Pontevedra 6 8 8 0 8
14 Deportivo La Coruña II 7 8 8 0 8
15 Cacereño 7 7 4 +3 12
16 Barakaldo 7 6 10 -4 6
17 Ponferradina 6 5 3 +2 11
18 Cultural Leonesa 6 4 5 -1 8
19 Arenas Getxo 6 4 14 -10 2
20 UD Ourense 7 3 10 -7 5
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions