Prediction Audit: Gijang United vs Geumsan Insam Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gijang United

Sep 13, 2026 - 08:00

3 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 58%

⚽

Geumsan Insam

AI correctly predicted the Gijang United win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Gijang United Gijang United ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Gijang United	36.1%	24.9%	+11.2 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	25.8%	+3.9 pp	Aligned
Geumsan Insam	34.2%	49.4%	-15.1 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Geumsan Insam's win probability at 49.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 15.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Gijang United win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Geumsan Insam than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Gijang United higher (51.2% vs model 36.1%, 15.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Gijang United win 3–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 13, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gijang United 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Geumsan Insam 34.2%
- xG · Gijang United 1.32 — Geumsan Insam 1.28
Sep 13, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gijang United 3.57 · Draw 3.45 · Geumsan Insam 1.80
- Implied 1X2 · Gijang United 24.9% · Draw 25.8% · Geumsan Insam 49.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 13, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gijang United 3.57 · Draw 3.45 · Geumsan Insam 1.80
- Implied 1X2 · Gijang United 24.9% · Draw 25.8% · Geumsan Insam 49.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 13, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Gijang United win · 3–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (15 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7419995

Closing Odds 1.8

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Gijang United win · Gijang United 3–1 Geumsan Insam

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: K4 League
Fixture: Gijang United vs Geumsan Insam
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Gijang United 1.32 — Geumsan Insam 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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K4 League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Jinju Citizen	20	16	2	2	50
2	Jincheon	20	11	5	4	38
3	Namyangju	21	10	6	5	36
4	Jungnang Chorus Mustang	20	10	4	6	34
5	Geumsan Insam	21	8	8	5	32
6	Jecheon Citizen	21	7	7	7	28
7	Geoje Citizen	18	8	3	7	27
8	Pyeongchang United	20	8	2	10	26
9	Gijang United	20	8	2	10	26
10	Sejong SA	20	8	2	10	26
11	Haman	19	6	2	11	20
12	Seosan Pioneer	20	4	0	16	12
13	Pyeongtaek Citizen	20	2	5	13	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Jinju Citizen	20	50	16	+34	50
2	Jincheon	20	38	20	+18	38
3	Jungnang Chorus Mustang	20	38	23	+15	34
4	Geumsan Insam	21	33	25	+8	32
5	Geoje Citizen	18	33	26	+7	27
6	Namyangju	21	30	26	+4	36
7	Sejong SA	20	29	40	-11	26
8	Gijang United	20	28	36	-8	26
9	Pyeongchang United	20	27	31	-4	26
10	Jecheon Citizen	21	26	31	-5	28
11	Haman	19	22	32	-10	20
12	Seosan Pioneer	20	22	46	-24	12
13	Pyeongtaek Citizen	20	20	44	-24	11