AI correctly predicted the Haman win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Haman Haman ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haman | 36.1% | 14.1% | +22.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 20.8% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Jincheon | 34.2% | 65.1% | -30.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Jincheon's win probability at 65.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 30.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Haman win 3–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Haman higher (67.0% vs model 36.1%, 30.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Haman win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Haman 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Jincheon 34.2%
- xG · Haman 1.32 — Jincheon 1.28
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Haman 6.29 · Draw 4.25 · Jincheon 1.36
- Implied 1X2 · Haman 14.1% · Draw 20.8% · Jincheon 65.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Haman 6.29 · Draw 4.25 · Jincheon 1.36
- Implied 1X2 · Haman 14.1% · Draw 20.8% · Jincheon 65.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Haman win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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K4 League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 50 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 38 |
| 3 | Namyangju | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 4 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | Geumsan Insam | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | Jecheon Citizen | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 7 | Geoje Citizen | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Pyeongchang United | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 9 | Gijang United | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 10 | Sejong SA | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 11 | Haman | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 12 | Seosan Pioneer | 20 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 20 | 50 | 16 | +34 | 50 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 20 | 38 | 20 | +18 | 38 |
| 3 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 20 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 34 |
| 4 | Geumsan Insam | 21 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 32 |
| 5 | Geoje Citizen | 18 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 27 |
| 6 | Namyangju | 21 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 36 |
| 7 | Sejong SA | 20 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 26 |
| 8 | Gijang United | 20 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 26 |
| 9 | Pyeongchang United | 20 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | Jecheon Citizen | 21 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | Haman | 19 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Seosan Pioneer | 20 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 12 |
| 13 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 20 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 11 |
