Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K4 League / Pyeongchang United vs Jecheon Citizen

Prediction Audit: Pyeongchang United vs Jecheon Citizen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pyeongchang United Pyeongchang United
Sep 05, 2026 - 08:00
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
⚽
Jecheon Citizen

AI correctly predicted the Pyeongchang United win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pyeongchang United Pyeongchang United ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Pyeongchang United win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Pyeongchang United 1.32 — Jecheon Citizen 1.28
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Pyeongchang United win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6121128

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pyeongchang United win · Pyeongchang United 2–1 Jecheon Citizen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: K4 League
  • Fixture: Pyeongchang United vs Jecheon Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Pyeongchang United 1.32 — Jecheon Citizen 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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K4 League K4 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 21 16 3 2 51
2 Jincheon 21 12 5 4 41
3 Namyangju 23 11 6 6 39
4 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 22 11 4 7 37
5 Geumsan Insam 22 9 8 5 35
6 Jecheon Citizen 22 8 7 7 31
7 Sejong SA 22 9 2 11 29
8 Geoje Citizen 19 8 4 7 28
9 Pyeongchang United 21 8 3 10 27
10 Gijang United 22 8 2 12 26
11 Haman 21 6 2 13 20
12 Pyeongtaek Citizen 21 3 5 13 14
13 Seosan Pioneer 21 4 1 16 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 21 50 16 +34 51
2 Jincheon 21 42 20 +22 41
3 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 22 40 27 +13 37
4 Geumsan Insam 22 35 25 +10 35
5 Sejong SA 22 35 49 -14 29
6 Geoje Citizen 19 33 26 +7 28
7 Namyangju 23 32 29 +3 39
8 Gijang United 22 31 43 -12 26
9 Jecheon Citizen 22 29 32 -3 31
10 Pyeongchang United 21 28 32 -4 27
11 Pyeongtaek Citizen 21 27 45 -18 14
12 Haman 21 23 37 -14 20
13 Seosan Pioneer 21 23 47 -24 13
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