Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K4 League / Geumsan Insam vs Pyeongtaek Citizen

Prediction Audit: Geumsan Insam vs Pyeongtaek Citizen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Geumsan Insam
Sep 05, 2026 - 08:00
0 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 49%
Pyeongtaek Citizen Pyeongtaek Citizen

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Geumsan Insam at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Geumsan Insam Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Geumsan Insam higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Geumsan Insam -29.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Geumsan Insam 36.1% 65.2% -29.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.8% +9.9 pp Model Higher
Pyeongtaek Citizen 34.2% 15.1% +19.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Geumsan Insam's win probability at 65.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 29.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Geumsan Insam; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Geumsan Insam by 29.0 percentage points (65.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Geumsan Insam 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Pyeongtaek Citizen 34.2%
    • xG · Geumsan Insam 1.32 — Pyeongtaek Citizen 1.28
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Geumsan Insam 1.38 · Draw 4.55 · Pyeongtaek Citizen 5.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Geumsan Insam 65.2% · Draw 19.8% · Pyeongtaek Citizen 15.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Geumsan Insam 1.38 · Draw 4.55 · Pyeongtaek Citizen 5.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Geumsan Insam 65.2% · Draw 19.8% · Pyeongtaek Citizen 15.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6121124

Closing Odds 1.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Geumsan Insam 0–0 Pyeongtaek Citizen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: K4 League
  • Fixture: Geumsan Insam vs Pyeongtaek Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Geumsan Insam 1.32 — Pyeongtaek Citizen 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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K4 League K4 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 20 16 2 2 50
2 Jincheon 20 11 5 4 38
3 Namyangju 21 10 6 5 36
4 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 20 10 4 6 34
5 Geumsan Insam 21 8 8 5 32
6 Jecheon Citizen 21 7 7 7 28
7 Geoje Citizen 18 8 3 7 27
8 Pyeongchang United 20 8 2 10 26
9 Gijang United 20 8 2 10 26
10 Sejong SA 20 8 2 10 26
11 Haman 19 6 2 11 20
12 Seosan Pioneer 20 4 0 16 12
13 Pyeongtaek Citizen 20 2 5 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 20 50 16 +34 50
2 Jincheon 20 38 20 +18 38
3 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 20 38 23 +15 34
4 Geumsan Insam 21 33 25 +8 32
5 Geoje Citizen 18 33 26 +7 27
6 Namyangju 21 30 26 +4 36
7 Sejong SA 20 29 40 -11 26
8 Gijang United 20 28 36 -8 26
9 Pyeongchang United 20 27 31 -4 26
10 Jecheon Citizen 21 26 31 -5 28
11 Haman 19 22 32 -10 20
12 Seosan Pioneer 20 22 46 -24 12
13 Pyeongtaek Citizen 20 20 44 -24 11
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