Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K4 League / Jecheon Citizen vs Geoje Citizen

Prediction Audit: Jecheon Citizen vs Geoje Citizen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Jecheon Citizen
Sep 19, 2026 - 08:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Geoje Citizen Geoje Citizen

The model missed the final outcome (Geoje Citizen win 0–2).

The model had projected Jecheon Citizen at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jecheon Citizen Geoje Citizen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Geoje Citizen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Geoje Citizen -9.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jecheon Citizen 36.1% 31.1% +5.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.0% +4.6 pp Aligned
Geoje Citizen 34.2% 43.9% -9.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Geoje Citizen's win probability at 43.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Geoje Citizen win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Geoje Citizen. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Jecheon Citizen; match finished Geoje Citizen
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jecheon Citizen by 9.6 percentage points (45.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jecheon Citizen 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Geoje Citizen 34.2%
    • xG · Jecheon Citizen 1.32 — Geoje Citizen 1.28
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jecheon Citizen 2.89 · Draw 3.59 · Geoje Citizen 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Jecheon Citizen 31.1% · Draw 25.0% · Geoje Citizen 43.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jecheon Citizen 2.89 · Draw 3.59 · Geoje Citizen 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Jecheon Citizen 31.1% · Draw 25.0% · Geoje Citizen 43.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Geoje Citizen win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8654392

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Geoje Citizen win · Jecheon Citizen 0–2 Geoje Citizen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: K4 League
  • Fixture: Jecheon Citizen vs Geoje Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Jecheon Citizen 1.32 — Geoje Citizen 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.6% · Probability edge: +8.2 pts · Est. EV: +11.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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K4 League K4 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 20 16 2 2 50
2 Jincheon 20 11 5 4 38
3 Namyangju 21 10 6 5 36
4 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 20 10 4 6 34
5 Geumsan Insam 21 8 8 5 32
6 Jecheon Citizen 21 7 7 7 28
7 Geoje Citizen 18 8 3 7 27
8 Pyeongchang United 20 8 2 10 26
9 Gijang United 20 8 2 10 26
10 Sejong SA 20 8 2 10 26
11 Haman 19 6 2 11 20
12 Seosan Pioneer 20 4 0 16 12
13 Pyeongtaek Citizen 20 2 5 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 20 50 16 +34 50
2 Jincheon 20 38 20 +18 38
3 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 20 38 23 +15 34
4 Geumsan Insam 21 33 25 +8 32
5 Geoje Citizen 18 33 26 +7 27
6 Namyangju 21 30 26 +4 36
7 Sejong SA 20 29 40 -11 26
8 Gijang United 20 28 36 -8 26
9 Pyeongchang United 20 27 31 -4 26
10 Jecheon Citizen 21 26 31 -5 28
11 Haman 19 22 32 -10 20
12 Seosan Pioneer 20 22 46 -24 12
13 Pyeongtaek Citizen 20 20 44 -24 11
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