Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K4 League / Geumsan Insam vs Jinju Citizen

Prediction Audit: Geumsan Insam vs Jinju Citizen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

⚽
Geumsan Insam
Aug 30, 2026 - 08:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Jinju Citizen Jinju Citizen

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Geumsan Insam at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Geumsan Insam Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Jinju Citizen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Jinju Citizen -10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Geumsan Insam 36.1% 26.9% +9.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.0% +1.6 pp Aligned
Jinju Citizen 34.2% 45.1% -10.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Jinju Citizen's win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Jinju Citizen than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Geumsan Insam; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Geumsan Insam by 10.8 percentage points (46.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Geumsan Insam 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Jinju Citizen 34.2%
    • xG · Geumsan Insam 1.32 — Jinju Citizen 1.28
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Geumsan Insam 3.30 · Draw 3.17 · Jinju Citizen 1.97
    • Implied 1X2 · Geumsan Insam 26.9% · Draw 28.0% · Jinju Citizen 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 30, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Geumsan Insam 3.30 · Draw 3.17 · Jinju Citizen 1.97
    • Implied 1X2 · Geumsan Insam 26.9% · Draw 28.0% · Jinju Citizen 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 30, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5285655

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Geumsan Insam 1–1 Jinju Citizen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: K4 League
  • Fixture: Geumsan Insam vs Jinju Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Geumsan Insam 1.32 — Jinju Citizen 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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K4 League K4 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 20 16 2 2 50
2 Jincheon 20 11 5 4 38
3 Namyangju 21 10 6 5 36
4 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 20 10 4 6 34
5 Geumsan Insam 21 8 8 5 32
6 Jecheon Citizen 21 7 7 7 28
7 Geoje Citizen 18 8 3 7 27
8 Pyeongchang United 20 8 2 10 26
9 Gijang United 20 8 2 10 26
10 Sejong SA 20 8 2 10 26
11 Haman 19 6 2 11 20
12 Seosan Pioneer 20 4 0 16 12
13 Pyeongtaek Citizen 20 2 5 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 20 50 16 +34 50
2 Jincheon 20 38 20 +18 38
3 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 20 38 23 +15 34
4 Geumsan Insam 21 33 25 +8 32
5 Geoje Citizen 18 33 26 +7 27
6 Namyangju 21 30 26 +4 36
7 Sejong SA 20 29 40 -11 26
8 Gijang United 20 28 36 -8 26
9 Pyeongchang United 20 27 31 -4 26
10 Jecheon Citizen 21 26 31 -5 28
11 Haman 19 22 32 -10 20
12 Seosan Pioneer 20 22 46 -24 12
13 Pyeongtaek Citizen 20 20 44 -24 11
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