Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K4 League / Gijang United vs Jinju Citizen

Prediction Audit: Gijang United vs Jinju Citizen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gijang United Gijang United
Aug 22, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Jinju Citizen Jinju Citizen

The model missed the final outcome (Jinju Citizen win 1–4).

The model had projected Gijang United at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Gijang United Jinju Citizen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Jinju Citizen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Jinju Citizen -20.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gijang United 36.1% 21.0% +15.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 24.5% +5.1 pp Model Higher
Jinju Citizen 34.2% 54.5% -20.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Jinju Citizen's win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 20.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Jinju Citizen win 1–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Gijang United; match finished Jinju Citizen

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gijang United by 20.2 percentage points (56.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gijang United 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Jinju Citizen 34.2%
    • xG · Gijang United 1.32 — Jinju Citizen 1.28
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 08:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gijang United 4.23 · Draw 3.62 · Jinju Citizen 1.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Gijang United 21.0% · Draw 24.5% · Jinju Citizen 54.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gijang United 4.23 · Draw 3.62 · Jinju Citizen 1.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Gijang United 21.0% · Draw 24.5% · Jinju Citizen 54.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jinju Citizen win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4212521

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jinju Citizen win · Gijang United 1–4 Jinju Citizen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: K4 League
  • Fixture: Gijang United vs Jinju Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Gijang United 1.32 — Jinju Citizen 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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K4 League K4 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 20 16 2 2 50
2 Jincheon 20 11 5 4 38
3 Namyangju 21 10 6 5 36
4 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 20 10 4 6 34
5 Geumsan Insam 21 8 8 5 32
6 Jecheon Citizen 21 7 7 7 28
7 Geoje Citizen 18 8 3 7 27
8 Pyeongchang United 20 8 2 10 26
9 Gijang United 20 8 2 10 26
10 Sejong SA 20 8 2 10 26
11 Haman 19 6 2 11 20
12 Seosan Pioneer 20 4 0 16 12
13 Pyeongtaek Citizen 20 2 5 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 20 50 16 +34 50
2 Jincheon 20 38 20 +18 38
3 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 20 38 23 +15 34
4 Geumsan Insam 21 33 25 +8 32
5 Geoje Citizen 18 33 26 +7 27
6 Namyangju 21 30 26 +4 36
7 Sejong SA 20 29 40 -11 26
8 Gijang United 20 28 36 -8 26
9 Pyeongchang United 20 27 31 -4 26
10 Jecheon Citizen 21 26 31 -5 28
11 Haman 19 22 32 -10 20
12 Seosan Pioneer 20 22 46 -24 12
13 Pyeongtaek Citizen 20 20 44 -24 11
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