The model missed the final outcome (Namyangju win 0–1).
The model had projected Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Jungnang Chorus Mustang Namyangju ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 36.1% | 46.5% | -10.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.8% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Namyangju | 34.2% | 26.8% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Jungnang Chorus Mustang's win probability at 46.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Namyangju win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Jungnang Chorus Mustang than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Jungnang Chorus Mustang; match finished Namyangju
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Jungnang Chorus Mustang by 10.3 percentage points (46.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Jungnang Chorus Mustang 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Namyangju 34.2%
- xG · Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1.32 — Namyangju 1.28
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1.93 · Draw 3.35 · Namyangju 3.35
- Implied 1X2 · Jungnang Chorus Mustang 46.5% · Draw 26.8% · Namyangju 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1.93 · Draw 3.35 · Namyangju 3.35
- Implied 1X2 · Jungnang Chorus Mustang 46.5% · Draw 26.8% · Namyangju 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Namyangju win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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K4 League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 50 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 38 |
| 3 | Namyangju | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 4 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | Geumsan Insam | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | Jecheon Citizen | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 7 | Geoje Citizen | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Pyeongchang United | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 9 | Gijang United | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 10 | Sejong SA | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 11 | Haman | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 12 | Seosan Pioneer | 20 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 20 | 50 | 16 | +34 | 50 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 20 | 38 | 20 | +18 | 38 |
| 3 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 20 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 34 |
| 4 | Geumsan Insam | 21 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 32 |
| 5 | Geoje Citizen | 18 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 27 |
| 6 | Namyangju | 21 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 36 |
| 7 | Sejong SA | 20 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 26 |
| 8 | Gijang United | 20 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 26 |
| 9 | Pyeongchang United | 20 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | Jecheon Citizen | 21 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | Haman | 19 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Seosan Pioneer | 20 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 12 |
| 13 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 20 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 11 |
