Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K4 League / Haman vs Sejong SA

Prediction Audit: Haman vs Sejong SA Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

⚽
Haman
Jul 26, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Sejong SA Sejong SA

The model missed the final outcome (Haman win 1–0).

The model had projected Sejong SA at 40.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sejong SA Haman ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sejong SA higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sejong SA -14.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Haman 31.4% 21.1% +10.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 28.6% 24.7% +3.9 pp Aligned
Sejong SA 40.0% 54.2% -14.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sejong SA's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.0%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Haman win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sejong SA than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Sejong SA; match finished Haman

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sejong SA by 14.1 percentage points (54.1% vs model 40.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Haman 31.4% · Draw 28.6% · Sejong SA 40.0%
    • xG · Haman 1.32 — Sejong SA 1.28
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Haman 4.20 · Draw 3.60 · Sejong SA 1.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Haman 21.1% · Draw 24.7% · Sejong SA 54.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Haman 4.20 · Draw 3.60 · Sejong SA 1.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Haman 21.1% · Draw 24.7% · Sejong SA 54.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Haman win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 29/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1450664

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Haman win · Haman 1–0 Sejong SA
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: K4 League
  • Fixture: Haman vs Sejong SA
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Haman 1.32 — Sejong SA 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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K4 League K4 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 20 16 2 2 50
2 Jincheon 20 11 5 4 38
3 Namyangju 21 10 6 5 36
4 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 20 10 4 6 34
5 Geumsan Insam 21 8 8 5 32
6 Jecheon Citizen 21 7 7 7 28
7 Geoje Citizen 18 8 3 7 27
8 Pyeongchang United 20 8 2 10 26
9 Gijang United 20 8 2 10 26
10 Sejong SA 20 8 2 10 26
11 Haman 19 6 2 11 20
12 Seosan Pioneer 20 4 0 16 12
13 Pyeongtaek Citizen 20 2 5 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jinju Citizen 20 50 16 +34 50
2 Jincheon 20 38 20 +18 38
3 Jungnang Chorus Mustang 20 38 23 +15 34
4 Geumsan Insam 21 33 25 +8 32
5 Geoje Citizen 18 33 26 +7 27
6 Namyangju 21 30 26 +4 36
7 Sejong SA 20 29 40 -11 26
8 Gijang United 20 28 36 -8 26
9 Pyeongchang United 20 27 31 -4 26
10 Jecheon Citizen 21 26 31 -5 28
11 Haman 19 22 32 -10 20
12 Seosan Pioneer 20 22 46 -24 12
13 Pyeongtaek Citizen 20 20 44 -24 11
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