Prediction Audit: Sassuolo U20 vs Fiorentina U20 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sassuolo U20

Aug 22, 2026 - 14:45

1 1.27

1 1.33

xG Accuracy: 85%

Fiorentina U20

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Fiorentina U20 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Fiorentina U20 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sassuolo U20	33.8%	26.6%	+7.1 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.6%	25.9%	+3.8 pp	Aligned
Fiorentina U20	36.6%	47.5%	-10.9 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Fiorentina U20's win probability at 47.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Fiorentina U20 than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Fiorentina U20; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fiorentina U20 by 10.9 percentage points (47.5% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 14:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sassuolo U20 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Fiorentina U20 36.6%
- xG · Sassuolo U20 1.27 — Fiorentina U20 1.33
Aug 22, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sassuolo U20 3.44 · Draw 3.54 · Fiorentina U20 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · Sassuolo U20 26.6% · Draw 25.9% · Fiorentina U20 47.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 14:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sassuolo U20 3.44 · Draw 3.54 · Fiorentina U20 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · Sassuolo U20 26.6% · Draw 25.9% · Fiorentina U20 47.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 14:45 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100

Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4231896

Closing Odds 1.93

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Sassuolo U20 1–1 Fiorentina U20

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Campionato Primavera - 1
Fixture: Sassuolo U20 vs Fiorentina U20
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Sassuolo U20 1.27 — Fiorentina U20 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Campionato Primavera - 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Internazionale U20	5	4	1	0	13
2	Parma U20	5	3	2	0	11
3	Roma U20	5	3	2	0	11
4	Empoli U20	5	3	2	0	11
5	Lazio U20	5	3	1	1	10
6	Bologna U20	5	3	0	2	9
7	Genoa U20	5	2	1	2	7
8	Hellas Verona U20	5	2	1	2	7
9	Milan U20	5	2	1	2	7
10	Cagliari U20	5	2	1	2	7
11	Cesena U20	5	1	3	1	6
12	Como U20	5	1	2	2	5
13	Torino U20	5	1	2	2	5
14	Lecce U20	5	0	4	1	4
15	Monza U20	5	1	1	3	4
16	Sassuolo U20	5	1	1	3	4
17	Albinoleffe U20	5	1	1	3	4
18	Fiorentina U20	5	0	3	2	3
19	Juventus U20	5	0	3	2	3
20	Atalanta U20	5	1	0	4	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Internazionale U20	5	15	5	+10	13
2	Bologna U20	5	12	12	0	9
3	Torino U20	5	12	13	-1	5
4	Parma U20	5	11	5	+6	11
5	Lazio U20	5	10	5	+5	10
6	Roma U20	5	9	5	+4	11
7	Empoli U20	5	9	6	+3	11
8	Genoa U20	5	8	7	+1	7
9	Lecce U20	5	8	9	-1	4
10	Monza U20	5	8	10	-2	4
11	Cagliari U20	5	8	12	-4	7
12	Sassuolo U20	5	8	12	-4	4
13	Atalanta U20	5	7	13	-6	3
14	Hellas Verona U20	5	6	5	+1	7
15	Milan U20	5	6	6	0	7
16	Como U20	5	6	6	0	5
17	Cesena U20	5	5	5	0	6
18	Fiorentina U20	5	5	7	-2	3
19	Juventus U20	5	4	7	-3	3
20	Albinoleffe U20	5	4	11	-7	4