Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Mławianka Mława

Prediction Audit: Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Mławianka Mława Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ząbkovia Ząbki Ząbkovia Ząbki
Sep 25, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.25
4 1.35
xG Accuracy: 30%
Mławianka Mława Mławianka Mława

AI correctly predicted the Mławianka Mława win.

The match finished 3–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mławianka Mława Mławianka Mława ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ząbkovia Ząbki higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ząbkovia Ząbki -16.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ząbkovia Ząbki 32.9% 49.2% -16.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.4% +7.2 pp Model Higher
Mławianka Mława 37.5% 28.4% +9.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Ząbkovia Ząbki's win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Mławianka Mława win 3–4).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ząbkovia Ząbki than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mławianka Mława higher (53.8% vs model 37.5%, 16.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mławianka Mława win 3–4).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Mławianka Mława 37.6%
    • xG · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.25 — Mławianka Mława 1.35
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.81 · Draw 3.97 · Mławianka Mława 3.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 49.2% · Draw 22.4% · Mławianka Mława 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.81 · Draw 3.97 · Mławianka Mława 3.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 49.2% · Draw 22.4% · Mławianka Mława 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mławianka Mława win · 3–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9563428

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mławianka Mława win · Ząbkovia Ząbki 3–4 Mławianka Mława
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Mławianka Mława
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.25 — Mławianka Mława 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.8% · Probability edge: +20.0 pts · Est. EV: +70.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming III Liga - Group 1 Matches Track Ząbkovia Ząbki Next Match Prediction Track Mławianka Mława Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weszlo 9 8 1 0 25
2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 6 2 2 20
3 Wigry Suwałki 10 5 4 1 19
4 Pelikan Łowicz 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wisła Płock II 10 5 3 2 18
6 Swit 10 5 2 3 17
7 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 5 1 4 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 15
9 Warta Sieradz 9 4 2 3 14
10 Widzew II 9 4 1 4 13
11 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 4 1 5 13
12 Olimpia Zambrów 10 3 2 5 11
13 ŁKS Łódź II 9 3 1 5 10
14 Olimpia Elbląg 10 3 1 6 10
15 Mławianka Mława 10 3 1 6 10
16 Troszyn 9 1 3 5 6
17 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 1 2 6 5
18 Łomża 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 26 17 +9 20
2 Weszlo 9 22 6 +16 25
3 Wisła Płock II 10 22 17 +5 18
4 Jagiellonia II 10 22 20 +2 15
5 Widzew II 9 20 17 +3 13
6 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 20 21 -1 13
7 Olimpia Zambrów 10 20 26 -6 11
8 Mławianka Mława 10 20 28 -8 10
9 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 19 18 +1 16
10 Wigry Suwałki 10 18 10 +8 19
11 Warta Sieradz 9 17 15 +2 14
12 Swit 10 16 10 +6 17
13 Pelikan Łowicz 10 16 12 +4 19
14 ŁKS Łódź II 9 15 18 -3 10
15 Olimpia Elbląg 10 14 20 -6 10
16 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 13 20 -7 5
17 Troszyn 9 11 23 -12 6
18 Łomża 10 10 23 -13 3
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions