The model missed the final outcome (Swit win 4–0).
The model had projected Łomża at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Łomża Swit ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swit | 27.5% | 61.2% | -33.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 18.9% | +10.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Łomża | 43.4% | 19.9% | +23.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Swit's win probability at 61.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.5%, a difference of 33.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Swit win 4–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Łomża; match finished Swit
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Łomża by 33.7 percentage points (77.1% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Swit 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Łomża 43.3%
- xG · Swit 1.13 — Łomża 1.47
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Swit 1.94 · Draw 3.94 · Łomża 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Swit 45.7% · Draw 22.5% · Łomża 31.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Swit 1.45 · Draw 4.70 · Łomża 4.46
- Implied 1X2 · Swit 61.2% · Draw 18.9% · Łomża 19.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Swit win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (34 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Wigry Suwałki | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Pelikan Łowicz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Swit | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Warta Sieradz | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Widzew II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Olimpia Zambrów | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Olimpia Elbląg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 15 | Mławianka Mława | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 16 | Troszyn | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Łomża | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 10 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Weszlo | 9 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 25 |
| 3 | Wisła Płock II | 10 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia II | 10 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 15 |
| 5 | Widzew II | 9 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 10 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Olimpia Zambrów | 10 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Mławianka Mława | 10 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 10 | Wigry Suwałki | 10 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 11 | Warta Sieradz | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 12 | Swit | 10 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 13 | Pelikan Łowicz | 10 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 14 | ŁKS Łódź II | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Olimpia Elbląg | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Łomża | 10 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 3 |
