Prediction Audit: Wisła Płock II vs Jagiellonia II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wisła Płock II

Sep 25, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.29

1 1.31

xG Accuracy: 76%

Jagiellonia II

The model missed the final outcome (Wisła Płock II win 2–1).

The model had projected Jagiellonia II at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Jagiellonia II Wisła Płock II ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Wisła Płock II	34.7%	41.4%	-6.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.5%	+6.2 pp	Model Higher
Jagiellonia II	35.6%	35.2%	+0.5 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Wisła Płock II's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wisła Płock II win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Wisła Płock II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jagiellonia II by 6.7 percentage points (42.3% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 25, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wisła Płock II 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Jagiellonia II 35.6%
- xG · Wisła Płock II 1.29 — Jagiellonia II 1.31
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wisła Płock II 2.15 · Draw 3.79 · Jagiellonia II 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Wisła Płock II 41.4% · Draw 23.5% · Jagiellonia II 35.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wisła Płock II 2.15 · Draw 3.79 · Jagiellonia II 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Wisła Płock II 41.4% · Draw 23.5% · Jagiellonia II 35.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Wisła Płock II win · 2–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9563353

Closing Odds 2.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Wisła Płock II win · Wisła Płock II 2–1 Jagiellonia II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 1
Fixture: Wisła Płock II vs Jagiellonia II
Kickoff: 2026-09-25 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Wisła Płock II 1.29 — Jagiellonia II 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.8% · Probability edge: +18.0 pts · Est. EV: +55.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Weszlo	9	8	1	0	25
2	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	10	6	2	2	20
3	Wigry Suwałki	10	5	4	1	19
4	Pelikan Łowicz	10	6	1	3	19
5	Wisła Płock II	10	5	3	2	18
6	Swit	10	5	2	3	17
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	5	1	4	16
8	Jagiellonia II	10	4	3	3	15
9	Warta Sieradz	9	4	2	3	14
10	Widzew II	9	4	1	4	13
11	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	10	4	1	5	13
12	Olimpia Zambrów	10	3	2	5	11
13	ŁKS Łódź II	9	3	1	5	10
14	Olimpia Elbląg	10	3	1	6	10
15	Mławianka Mława	10	3	1	6	10
16	Troszyn	9	1	3	5	6
17	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	9	1	2	6	5
18	Łomża	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	10	26	17	+9	20
2	Weszlo	9	22	6	+16	25
3	Wisła Płock II	10	22	17	+5	18
4	Jagiellonia II	10	22	20	+2	15
5	Widzew II	9	20	17	+3	13
6	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	10	20	21	-1	13
7	Olimpia Zambrów	10	20	26	-6	11
8	Mławianka Mława	10	20	28	-8	10
9	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	19	18	+1	16
10	Wigry Suwałki	10	18	10	+8	19
11	Warta Sieradz	9	17	15	+2	14
12	Swit	10	16	10	+6	17
13	Pelikan Łowicz	10	16	12	+4	19
14	ŁKS Łódź II	9	15	18	-3	10
15	Olimpia Elbląg	10	14	20	-6	10
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	9	13	20	-7	5
17	Troszyn	9	11	23	-12	6
18	Łomża	10	10	23	-13	3