Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Łomża vs Ząbkovia Ząbki

Prediction Audit: Łomża vs Ząbkovia Ząbki Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Łomża Łomża
Sep 18, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.52
2 1.08
xG Accuracy: 51%
Ząbkovia Ząbki Ząbkovia Ząbki

The model missed the final outcome (Ząbkovia Ząbki win 0–2).

The model had projected Łomża at 45.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Łomża Ząbkovia Ząbki ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ząbkovia Ząbki higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ząbkovia Ząbki -21.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Łomża 45.8% 29.8% +16.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 28.8% 23.5% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Ząbkovia Ząbki 25.4% 46.7% -21.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Ząbkovia Ząbki's win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.4%, a difference of 21.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ząbkovia Ząbki win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Łomża; match finished Ząbkovia Ząbki
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Łomża by 21.3 percentage points (67.1% vs model 45.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Łomża 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Ząbkovia Ząbki 25.4%
    • xG · Łomża 1.52 — Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.08
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Łomża 2.96 · Draw 3.76 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Łomża 29.8% · Draw 23.5% · Ząbkovia Ząbki 46.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Łomża 2.96 · Draw 3.76 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Łomża 29.8% · Draw 23.5% · Ząbkovia Ząbki 46.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ząbkovia Ząbki win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8199039

Closing Odds 1.89
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ząbkovia Ząbki win · Łomża 0–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Łomża vs Ząbkovia Ząbki
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Away 25.4%
  • xG (showing): Łomża 1.52 — Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.08 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 46.8% · Implied: 34.6% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +26.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 1 Matches Track Łomża Next Match Prediction Track Ząbkovia Ząbki Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weszlo 9 8 1 0 25
2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 6 2 2 20
3 Wigry Suwałki 10 5 4 1 19
4 Pelikan Łowicz 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wisła Płock II 10 5 3 2 18
6 Swit 10 5 2 3 17
7 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 5 1 4 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 15
9 Warta Sieradz 9 4 2 3 14
10 Widzew II 9 4 1 4 13
11 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 4 1 5 13
12 Olimpia Zambrów 10 3 2 5 11
13 ŁKS Łódź II 9 3 1 5 10
14 Olimpia Elbląg 10 3 1 6 10
15 Mławianka Mława 10 3 1 6 10
16 Troszyn 9 1 3 5 6
17 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 1 2 6 5
18 Łomża 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 26 17 +9 20
2 Weszlo 9 22 6 +16 25
3 Wisła Płock II 10 22 17 +5 18
4 Jagiellonia II 10 22 20 +2 15
5 Widzew II 9 20 17 +3 13
6 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 20 21 -1 13
7 Olimpia Zambrów 10 20 26 -6 11
8 Mławianka Mława 10 20 28 -8 10
9 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 19 18 +1 16
10 Wigry Suwałki 10 18 10 +8 19
11 Warta Sieradz 9 17 15 +2 14
12 Swit 10 16 10 +6 17
13 Pelikan Łowicz 10 16 12 +4 19
14 ŁKS Łódź II 9 15 18 -3 10
15 Olimpia Elbląg 10 14 20 -6 10
16 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 13 20 -7 5
17 Troszyn 9 11 23 -12 6
18 Łomża 10 10 23 -13 3
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions