Prediction Audit: Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ząbkovia Ząbki

Sep 11, 2026 - 14:30

4 1.27

2 1.33

xG Accuracy: 39%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

The model missed the final outcome (Ząbkovia Ząbki win 4–2).

The model had projected Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Lechia T. Mazowiecki Ząbkovia Ząbki ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Ząbkovia Ząbki	33.8%	46.8%	-13.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.8%	+5.8 pp	Model Higher
Lechia T. Mazowiecki	36.6%	29.4%	+7.2 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Ząbkovia Ząbki's win probability at 46.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ząbkovia Ząbki win 4–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ząbkovia Ząbki than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lechia T. Mazowiecki by 13.0 percentage points (49.6% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 11, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 36.6%
- xG · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.27 — Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1.33
Sep 11, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.90 · Draw 3.73 · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 46.8% · Draw 23.8% · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 29.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 11, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.90 · Draw 3.73 · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 46.8% · Draw 23.8% · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 29.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 11, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Ząbkovia Ząbki win · 4–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100

Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7027416

Closing Odds 1.9

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ząbkovia Ząbki win · Ząbkovia Ząbki 4–2 Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: III Liga - Group 1
Fixture: Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.27 — Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.2% · Probability edge: +18.6 pts · Est. EV: +55.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Weszlo	9	8	1	0	25
2	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	10	6	2	2	20
3	Wigry Suwałki	10	5	4	1	19
4	Pelikan Łowicz	10	6	1	3	19
5	Wisła Płock II	10	5	3	2	18
6	Swit	10	5	2	3	17
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	5	1	4	16
8	Jagiellonia II	10	4	3	3	15
9	Warta Sieradz	9	4	2	3	14
10	Widzew II	9	4	1	4	13
11	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	10	4	1	5	13
12	Olimpia Zambrów	10	3	2	5	11
13	ŁKS Łódź II	9	3	1	5	10
14	Olimpia Elbląg	10	3	1	6	10
15	Mławianka Mława	10	3	1	6	10
16	Troszyn	9	1	3	5	6
17	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	9	1	2	6	5
18	Łomża	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	10	26	17	+9	20
2	Weszlo	9	22	6	+16	25
3	Wisła Płock II	10	22	17	+5	18
4	Jagiellonia II	10	22	20	+2	15
5	Widzew II	9	20	17	+3	13
6	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	10	20	21	-1	13
7	Olimpia Zambrów	10	20	26	-6	11
8	Mławianka Mława	10	20	28	-8	10
9	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	19	18	+1	16
10	Wigry Suwałki	10	18	10	+8	19
11	Warta Sieradz	9	17	15	+2	14
12	Swit	10	16	10	+6	17
13	Pelikan Łowicz	10	16	12	+4	19
14	ŁKS Łódź II	9	15	18	-3	10
15	Olimpia Elbląg	10	14	20	-6	10
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	9	13	20	-7	5
17	Troszyn	9	11	23	-12	6
18	Łomża	10	10	23	-13	3