Prediction Audit: Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Troszyn Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.24

2 1.36

xG Accuracy: 60%

Troszyn

AI correctly predicted the Troszyn win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Troszyn Troszyn ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Lechia T. Mazowiecki	32.4%	51.1%	-18.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.3%	+6.3 pp	Model Higher
Troszyn	38.0%	25.7%	+12.3 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Lechia T. Mazowiecki's win probability at 51.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 18.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Troszyn win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Lechia T. Mazowiecki than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Troszyn higher (56.7% vs model 38.0%, 18.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Troszyn win 0–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 05, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Troszyn 38.0%
- xG · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1.24 — Troszyn 1.36
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1.74 · Draw 3.82 · Troszyn 3.46
- Implied 1X2 · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 51.1% · Draw 23.3% · Troszyn 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1.74 · Draw 3.82 · Troszyn 3.46
- Implied 1X2 · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 51.1% · Draw 23.3% · Troszyn 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Troszyn win · 0–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (19 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 2/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6147232

Closing Odds 1.74

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Troszyn win · Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0–2 Troszyn

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: III Liga - Group 1
Fixture: Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Troszyn
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1.24 — Troszyn 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 1 Matches Track Lechia T. Mazowiecki Next Match Prediction Track Troszyn Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Lechia T. Mazowiecki & Troszyn!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

III Liga - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Weszlo	9	8	1	0	25
2	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	10	6	2	2	20
3	Wigry Suwałki	10	5	4	1	19
4	Pelikan Łowicz	10	6	1	3	19
5	Wisła Płock II	10	5	3	2	18
6	Swit	10	5	2	3	17
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	5	1	4	16
8	Jagiellonia II	10	4	3	3	15
9	Warta Sieradz	9	4	2	3	14
10	Widzew II	9	4	1	4	13
11	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	10	4	1	5	13
12	Olimpia Zambrów	10	3	2	5	11
13	ŁKS Łódź II	9	3	1	5	10
14	Olimpia Elbląg	10	3	1	6	10
15	Mławianka Mława	10	3	1	6	10
16	Troszyn	9	1	3	5	6
17	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	9	1	2	6	5
18	Łomża	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	10	26	17	+9	20
2	Weszlo	9	22	6	+16	25
3	Wisła Płock II	10	22	17	+5	18
4	Jagiellonia II	10	22	20	+2	15
5	Widzew II	9	20	17	+3	13
6	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	10	20	21	-1	13
7	Olimpia Zambrów	10	20	26	-6	11
8	Mławianka Mława	10	20	28	-8	10
9	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	19	18	+1	16
10	Wigry Suwałki	10	18	10	+8	19
11	Warta Sieradz	9	17	15	+2	14
12	Swit	10	16	10	+6	17
13	Pelikan Łowicz	10	16	12	+4	19
14	ŁKS Łódź II	9	15	18	-3	10
15	Olimpia Elbląg	10	14	20	-6	10
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	9	13	20	-7	5
17	Troszyn	9	11	23	-12	6
18	Łomża	10	10	23	-13	3