Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Wigry Suwałki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

Prediction Audit: Wigry Suwałki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wigry Suwałki Wigry Suwałki
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.39
3 1.21
xG Accuracy: 55%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

The model missed the final outcome (Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win 1–3).

The model had projected Wigry Suwałki at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Wigry Suwałki Polonia Lidzbark Warm. ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wigry Suwałki higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wigry Suwałki -27.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wigry Suwałki 39.5% 67.4% -27.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 18.9% +10.7 pp Model Edge
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 31.0% 13.8% +17.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Wigry Suwałki's win probability at 67.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 27.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win 1–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Wigry Suwałki; match finished Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Wigry Suwałki by 27.9 percentage points (67.4% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wigry Suwałki 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 31.0%
    • xG · Wigry Suwałki 1.39 — Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 1.21
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wigry Suwałki 1.33 · Draw 4.75 · Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 6.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Wigry Suwałki 67.4% · Draw 18.9% · Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 13.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wigry Suwałki 1.33 · Draw 4.75 · Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 6.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Wigry Suwałki 67.4% · Draw 18.9% · Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 13.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6366738

Closing Odds 1.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win · Wigry Suwałki 1–3 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Wigry Suwałki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Wigry Suwałki 1.39 — Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weszlo 9 8 1 0 25
2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 6 2 2 20
3 Wigry Suwałki 10 5 4 1 19
4 Pelikan Łowicz 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wisła Płock II 10 5 3 2 18
6 Swit 10 5 2 3 17
7 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 5 1 4 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 15
9 Warta Sieradz 9 4 2 3 14
10 Widzew II 9 4 1 4 13
11 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 4 1 5 13
12 Olimpia Zambrów 10 3 2 5 11
13 ŁKS Łódź II 9 3 1 5 10
14 Olimpia Elbląg 10 3 1 6 10
15 Mławianka Mława 10 3 1 6 10
16 Troszyn 9 1 3 5 6
17 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 1 2 6 5
18 Łomża 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 26 17 +9 20
2 Weszlo 9 22 6 +16 25
3 Wisła Płock II 10 22 17 +5 18
4 Jagiellonia II 10 22 20 +2 15
5 Widzew II 9 20 17 +3 13
6 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 20 21 -1 13
7 Olimpia Zambrów 10 20 26 -6 11
8 Mławianka Mława 10 20 28 -8 10
9 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 19 18 +1 16
10 Wigry Suwałki 10 18 10 +8 19
11 Warta Sieradz 9 17 15 +2 14
12 Swit 10 16 10 +6 17
13 Pelikan Łowicz 10 16 12 +4 19
14 ŁKS Łódź II 9 15 18 -3 10
15 Olimpia Elbląg 10 14 20 -6 10
16 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 13 20 -7 5
17 Troszyn 9 11 23 -12 6
18 Łomża 10 10 23 -13 3
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions