Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Mławianka Mława vs ŁKS Łódź II

Prediction Audit: Mławianka Mława vs ŁKS Łódź II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mławianka Mława Mławianka Mława
Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 56%
ŁKS Łódź II ŁKS Łódź II

The model missed the final outcome (ŁKS Łódź II win 0–2).

The model had projected Mławianka Mława at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mławianka Mława ŁKS Łódź II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Mławianka Mława higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mławianka Mława -9.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mławianka Mława 37.1% 46.0% -9.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.4% +4.2 pp Aligned
ŁKS Łódź II 33.3% 28.6% +4.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Mławianka Mława's win probability at 46.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was ŁKS Łódź II win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Mławianka Mława. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Mławianka Mława; match finished ŁKS Łódź II
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mławianka Mława by 9.0 percentage points (46.1% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mławianka Mława 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · ŁKS Łódź II 33.4%
    • xG · Mławianka Mława 1.34 — ŁKS Łódź II 1.26
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mławianka Mława 1.93 · Draw 3.50 · ŁKS Łódź II 3.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Mławianka Mława 46.0% · Draw 25.4% · ŁKS Łódź II 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Mławianka Mława 1.93 · Draw 3.50 · ŁKS Łódź II 3.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Mławianka Mława 46.0% · Draw 25.4% · ŁKS Łódź II 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result ŁKS Łódź II win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 55/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6361197

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ŁKS Łódź II win · Mławianka Mława 0–2 ŁKS Łódź II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Mławianka Mława vs ŁKS Łódź II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Mławianka Mława 1.34 — ŁKS Łódź II 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.6% · Probability edge: +15.2 pts · Est. EV: +35.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming III Liga - Group 1 Matches Track Mławianka Mława Next Match Prediction Track ŁKS Łódź II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weszlo 9 8 1 0 25
2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 6 2 2 20
3 Wigry Suwałki 10 5 4 1 19
4 Pelikan Łowicz 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wisła Płock II 10 5 3 2 18
6 Swit 10 5 2 3 17
7 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 5 1 4 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 15
9 Warta Sieradz 9 4 2 3 14
10 Widzew II 9 4 1 4 13
11 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 4 1 5 13
12 Olimpia Zambrów 10 3 2 5 11
13 ŁKS Łódź II 9 3 1 5 10
14 Olimpia Elbląg 10 3 1 6 10
15 Mławianka Mława 10 3 1 6 10
16 Troszyn 9 1 3 5 6
17 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 1 2 6 5
18 Łomża 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 26 17 +9 20
2 Weszlo 9 22 6 +16 25
3 Wisła Płock II 10 22 17 +5 18
4 Jagiellonia II 10 22 20 +2 15
5 Widzew II 9 20 17 +3 13
6 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 20 21 -1 13
7 Olimpia Zambrów 10 20 26 -6 11
8 Mławianka Mława 10 20 28 -8 10
9 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 19 18 +1 16
10 Wigry Suwałki 10 18 10 +8 19
11 Warta Sieradz 9 17 15 +2 14
12 Swit 10 16 10 +6 17
13 Pelikan Łowicz 10 16 12 +4 19
14 ŁKS Łódź II 9 15 18 -3 10
15 Olimpia Elbląg 10 14 20 -6 10
16 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 13 20 -7 5
17 Troszyn 9 11 23 -12 6
18 Łomża 10 10 23 -13 3
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions