Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Olimpia Zambrów vs Wisła Płock II

Prediction Audit: Olimpia Zambrów vs Wisła Płock II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Olimpia Zambrów Olimpia Zambrów
Aug 23, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 30%
Wisła Płock II Wisła Płock II

AI correctly predicted the Olimpia Zambrów win.

The match finished 4–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Olimpia Zambrów Olimpia Zambrów ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Wisła Płock II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wisła Płock II -7.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Olimpia Zambrów 35.6% 34.7% +1.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 23.1% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Wisła Płock II 34.7% 42.3% -7.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Wisła Płock II's win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Olimpia Zambrów win 4–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Wisła Płock II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Olimpia Zambrów higher (43.2% vs model 35.6%, 7.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Olimpia Zambrów win 4–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Olimpia Zambrów 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Wisła Płock II 34.7%
    • xG · Olimpia Zambrów 1.31 — Wisła Płock II 1.29
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Olimpia Zambrów 2.56 · Draw 3.85 · Wisła Płock II 2.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Olimpia Zambrów 34.7% · Draw 23.1% · Wisła Płock II 42.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Olimpia Zambrów 2.56 · Draw 3.85 · Wisła Płock II 2.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Olimpia Zambrów 34.7% · Draw 23.1% · Wisła Płock II 42.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Olimpia Zambrów win · 4–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4365085

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Olimpia Zambrów win · Olimpia Zambrów 4–3 Wisła Płock II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Olimpia Zambrów vs Wisła Płock II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Olimpia Zambrów 1.31 — Wisła Płock II 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weszlo 9 8 1 0 25
2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 6 2 2 20
3 Wigry Suwałki 10 5 4 1 19
4 Pelikan Łowicz 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wisła Płock II 10 5 3 2 18
6 Swit 10 5 2 3 17
7 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 5 1 4 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 15
9 Warta Sieradz 9 4 2 3 14
10 Widzew II 9 4 1 4 13
11 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 4 1 5 13
12 Olimpia Zambrów 10 3 2 5 11
13 ŁKS Łódź II 9 3 1 5 10
14 Olimpia Elbląg 10 3 1 6 10
15 Mławianka Mława 10 3 1 6 10
16 Troszyn 9 1 3 5 6
17 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 1 2 6 5
18 Łomża 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 26 17 +9 20
2 Weszlo 9 22 6 +16 25
3 Wisła Płock II 10 22 17 +5 18
4 Jagiellonia II 10 22 20 +2 15
5 Widzew II 9 20 17 +3 13
6 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 20 21 -1 13
7 Olimpia Zambrów 10 20 26 -6 11
8 Mławianka Mława 10 20 28 -8 10
9 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 19 18 +1 16
10 Wigry Suwałki 10 18 10 +8 19
11 Warta Sieradz 9 17 15 +2 14
12 Swit 10 16 10 +6 17
13 Pelikan Łowicz 10 16 12 +4 19
14 ŁKS Łódź II 9 15 18 -3 10
15 Olimpia Elbląg 10 14 20 -6 10
16 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 13 20 -7 5
17 Troszyn 9 11 23 -12 6
18 Łomża 10 10 23 -13 3
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions