Prediction Audit: Weszlo vs Mławianka Mława Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Weszlo

Aug 14, 2026 - 17:00

5 1.30

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 33%

Mławianka Mława

AI correctly predicted the Weszlo win.

The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Weszlo Weszlo ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Weszlo	35.2%	44.0%	-8.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.7%	+5.9 pp	Model Higher
Mławianka Mława	35.2%	32.2%	+2.9 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Weszlo's win probability at 44.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Weszlo win 5–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Weszlo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Weszlo higher (44.1% vs model 35.2%, 8.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Weszlo win 5–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 14, 2026 · 16:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Weszlo 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Mławianka Mława 35.2%
- xG · Weszlo 1.30 — Mławianka Mława 1.30
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Weszlo 2.02 · Draw 3.75 · Mławianka Mława 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Weszlo 44.0% · Draw 23.7% · Mławianka Mława 32.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Weszlo 2.02 · Draw 3.75 · Mławianka Mława 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Weszlo 44.0% · Draw 23.7% · Mławianka Mława 32.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Weszlo win · 5–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 55/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3230340

Closing Odds 2.02

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Weszlo win · Weszlo 5–1 Mławianka Mława

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: III Liga - Group 1
Fixture: Weszlo vs Mławianka Mława
Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Weszlo 1.3 — Mławianka Mława 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Weszlo	10	8	2	0	26
2	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	10	6	2	2	20
3	Wigry Suwałki	10	5	4	1	19
4	Pelikan Łowicz	10	6	1	3	19
5	Wisła Płock II	10	5	3	2	18
6	Swit	10	5	2	3	17
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	5	1	4	16
8	Jagiellonia II	10	4	3	3	15
9	Warta Sieradz	9	4	2	3	14
10	Widzew II	9	4	1	4	13
11	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	10	4	1	5	13
12	ŁKS Łódź II	10	3	2	5	11
13	Olimpia Zambrów	10	3	2	5	11
14	Olimpia Elbląg	10	3	1	6	10
15	Mławianka Mława	10	3	1	6	10
16	Troszyn	10	1	4	5	7
17	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	10	1	3	6	6
18	Łomża	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	10	26	17	+9	20
2	Weszlo	10	23	7	+16	26
3	Wisła Płock II	10	22	17	+5	18
4	Jagiellonia II	10	22	20	+2	15
5	Widzew II	9	20	17	+3	13
6	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	10	20	21	-1	13
7	Olimpia Zambrów	10	20	26	-6	11
8	Mławianka Mława	10	20	28	-8	10
9	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	19	18	+1	16
10	Wigry Suwałki	10	18	10	+8	19
11	Warta Sieradz	9	17	15	+2	14
12	Swit	10	16	10	+6	17
13	Pelikan Łowicz	10	16	12	+4	19
14	ŁKS Łódź II	10	16	19	-3	11
15	Olimpia Elbląg	10	14	20	-6	10
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	10	14	21	-7	6
17	Troszyn	10	12	24	-12	7
18	Łomża	10	10	23	-13	3