Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Flota Świnoujście vs Unia Swarzędz

Prediction Audit: Flota Świnoujście vs Unia Swarzędz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Flota Świnoujście Flota Świnoujście
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.23
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 60%
Unia Swarzędz Unia Swarzędz

AI correctly predicted the Unia Swarzędz win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Unia Swarzędz Unia Swarzędz ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Flota Świnoujście 31.9% 32.7% -0.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.4% +4.2 pp Aligned
Unia Swarzędz 38.5% 41.9% -3.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Unia Swarzędz win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Unia Swarzędz win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Flota Świnoujście 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Unia Swarzędz 38.5%
    • xG · Flota Świnoujście 1.23 — Unia Swarzędz 1.37
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Flota Świnoujście 2.72 · Draw 3.50 · Unia Swarzędz 2.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Flota Świnoujście 32.7% · Draw 25.4% · Unia Swarzędz 41.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Flota Świnoujście 2.72 · Draw 3.50 · Unia Swarzędz 2.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Flota Świnoujście 32.7% · Draw 25.4% · Unia Swarzędz 41.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Unia Swarzędz win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 79/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10097523

Closing Odds 3.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Unia Swarzędz win · Flota Świnoujście 0–2 Unia Swarzędz
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Flota Świnoujście vs Unia Swarzędz
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Flota Świnoujście 1.23 — Unia Swarzędz 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 2 Matches Track Flota Świnoujście Next Match Prediction Track Unia Swarzędz Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 9 7 2 0 23
2 Luzino 9 7 1 1 22
3 Kluczevia Stargard 9 6 1 2 19
4 Wda Świecie 9 5 3 1 18
5 Lech Poznań II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Kalisz 9 3 5 1 14
7 Stargard Szczeciński 9 4 2 3 14
8 Flota Świnoujście 9 4 2 3 14
9 Noteć Czarnków 9 4 1 4 13
10 Gedania Gdansk 9 2 4 3 10
11 Grom Nowy Staw 9 3 1 5 10
12 Kotwica Kórnik 9 3 1 5 10
13 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 2 3 4 9
14 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 1 5 3 8
15 Unia Swarzędz 9 2 1 6 7
16 Elana Toruń 9 1 3 5 6
17 Victoria Września 9 1 3 5 6
18 Lipno Stęszew 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 9 28 10 +18 22
2 Polonia Środa 9 27 14 +13 23
3 Grom Nowy Staw 9 24 24 0 10
4 Gedania Gdansk 9 22 21 +1 10
5 Kluczevia Stargard 9 19 15 +4 19
6 Stargard Szczeciński 9 19 16 +3 14
7 Lech Poznań II 9 17 15 +2 15
8 Kotwica Kórnik 9 17 22 -5 10
9 Wda Świecie 9 15 10 +5 18
10 Kalisz 9 15 10 +5 14
11 Noteć Czarnków 9 15 13 +2 13
12 Flota Świnoujście 9 15 15 0 14
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 13 18 -5 8
14 Unia Swarzędz 9 11 19 -8 7
15 Elana Toruń 9 11 19 -8 6
16 Lipno Stęszew 9 10 21 -11 4
17 Victoria Września 9 10 22 -12 6
18 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 9 13 -4 9
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions