Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Stargard Szczeciński

Prediction Audit: Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chemik Bydgoszcz Chemik Bydgoszcz
Sep 26, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 39%
Stargard Szczeciński Stargard Szczeciński

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Stargard Szczeciński at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Stargard Szczeciński Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Stargard Szczeciński higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Stargard Szczeciński -10.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Chemik Bydgoszcz 33.8% 28.1% +5.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.2% +4.5 pp Aligned
Stargard Szczeciński 36.6% 46.7% -10.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Stargard Szczeciński's win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Stargard Szczeciński than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Stargard Szczeciński by 10.2 percentage points (46.8% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Chemik Bydgoszcz 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Stargard Szczeciński 36.6%
    • xG · Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.27 — Stargard Szczeciński 1.33
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Chemik Bydgoszcz 3.16 · Draw 3.53 · Stargard Szczeciński 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Chemik Bydgoszcz 28.1% · Draw 25.2% · Stargard Szczeciński 46.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Chemik Bydgoszcz 3.16 · Draw 3.53 · Stargard Szczeciński 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Chemik Bydgoszcz 28.1% · Draw 25.2% · Stargard Szczeciński 46.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10111476

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Chemik Bydgoszcz 3–3 Stargard Szczeciński
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Stargard Szczeciński
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.27 — Stargard Szczeciński 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.5% · Probability edge: +13.3 pts · Est. EV: +25.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 9 7 2 0 23
2 Luzino 9 7 1 1 22
3 Kluczevia Stargard 9 6 1 2 19
4 Wda Świecie 9 5 3 1 18
5 Lech Poznań II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Kalisz 9 3 5 1 14
7 Stargard Szczeciński 9 4 2 3 14
8 Flota Świnoujście 9 4 2 3 14
9 Noteć Czarnków 9 4 1 4 13
10 Gedania Gdansk 9 2 4 3 10
11 Grom Nowy Staw 9 3 1 5 10
12 Kotwica Kórnik 9 3 1 5 10
13 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 2 3 4 9
14 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 1 5 3 8
15 Unia Swarzędz 9 2 1 6 7
16 Elana Toruń 9 1 3 5 6
17 Victoria Września 9 1 3 5 6
18 Lipno Stęszew 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 9 28 10 +18 22
2 Polonia Środa 9 27 14 +13 23
3 Grom Nowy Staw 9 24 24 0 10
4 Gedania Gdansk 9 22 21 +1 10
5 Kluczevia Stargard 9 19 15 +4 19
6 Stargard Szczeciński 9 19 16 +3 14
7 Lech Poznań II 9 17 15 +2 15
8 Kotwica Kórnik 9 17 22 -5 10
9 Wda Świecie 9 15 10 +5 18
10 Kalisz 9 15 10 +5 14
11 Noteć Czarnków 9 15 13 +2 13
12 Flota Świnoujście 9 15 15 0 14
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 13 18 -5 8
14 Unia Swarzędz 9 11 19 -8 7
15 Elana Toruń 9 11 19 -8 6
16 Lipno Stęszew 9 10 21 -11 4
17 Victoria Września 9 10 22 -12 6
18 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 9 13 -4 9
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions