Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Lipno Stęszew vs Flota Świnoujście

Prediction Audit: Lipno Stęszew vs Flota Świnoujście Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lipno Stęszew Lipno Stęszew
Sep 05, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.37
3 1.23
xG Accuracy: 56%
Flota Świnoujście Flota Świnoujście

The model missed the final outcome (Flota Świnoujście win 1–3).

The model had projected Lipno Stęszew at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lipno Stęszew Flota Świnoujście ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Flota Świnoujście higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Flota Świnoujście -16.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lipno Stęszew 38.5% 29.8% +8.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.9% +7.6 pp Model Higher
Flota Świnoujście 31.9% 48.3% -16.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Flota Świnoujście's win probability at 48.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Flota Świnoujście win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Flota Świnoujście than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Lipno Stęszew; match finished Flota Świnoujście

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lipno Stęszew by 16.3 percentage points (54.8% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lipno Stęszew 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Flota Świnoujście 31.9%
    • xG · Lipno Stęszew 1.37 — Flota Świnoujście 1.23
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lipno Stęszew 2.98 · Draw 4.05 · Flota Świnoujście 1.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Lipno Stęszew 29.8% · Draw 21.9% · Flota Świnoujście 48.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Lipno Stęszew 2.98 · Draw 4.05 · Flota Świnoujście 1.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Lipno Stęszew 29.8% · Draw 21.9% · Flota Świnoujście 48.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Flota Świnoujście win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6157679

Closing Odds 1.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Flota Świnoujście win · Lipno Stęszew 1–3 Flota Świnoujście
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Lipno Stęszew vs Flota Świnoujście
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Lipno Stęszew 1.37 — Flota Świnoujście 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 9 7 2 0 23
2 Luzino 9 7 1 1 22
3 Kluczevia Stargard 9 6 1 2 19
4 Wda Świecie 9 5 3 1 18
5 Lech Poznań II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Kalisz 9 3 5 1 14
7 Stargard Szczeciński 9 4 2 3 14
8 Flota Świnoujście 9 4 2 3 14
9 Noteć Czarnków 9 4 1 4 13
10 Gedania Gdansk 9 2 4 3 10
11 Grom Nowy Staw 9 3 1 5 10
12 Kotwica Kórnik 9 3 1 5 10
13 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 2 3 4 9
14 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 1 5 3 8
15 Unia Swarzędz 9 2 1 6 7
16 Elana Toruń 9 1 3 5 6
17 Victoria Września 9 1 3 5 6
18 Lipno Stęszew 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 9 28 10 +18 22
2 Polonia Środa 9 27 14 +13 23
3 Grom Nowy Staw 9 24 24 0 10
4 Gedania Gdansk 9 22 21 +1 10
5 Kluczevia Stargard 9 19 15 +4 19
6 Stargard Szczeciński 9 19 16 +3 14
7 Lech Poznań II 9 17 15 +2 15
8 Kotwica Kórnik 9 17 22 -5 10
9 Wda Świecie 9 15 10 +5 18
10 Kalisz 9 15 10 +5 14
11 Noteć Czarnków 9 15 13 +2 13
12 Flota Świnoujście 9 15 15 0 14
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 13 18 -5 8
14 Unia Swarzędz 9 11 19 -8 7
15 Elana Toruń 9 11 19 -8 6
16 Lipno Stęszew 9 10 21 -11 4
17 Victoria Września 9 10 22 -12 6
18 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 9 13 -4 9
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions