Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Wda Świecie vs Noteć Czarnków

Prediction Audit: Wda Świecie vs Noteć Czarnków Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wda Świecie Wda Świecie
Aug 28, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 72%
Noteć Czarnków Noteć Czarnków

The model missed the final outcome (Wda Świecie win 2–1).

The model had projected Noteć Czarnków at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Noteć Czarnków Wda Świecie ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wda Świecie higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wda Świecie -10.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wda Świecie 31.0% 41.5% -10.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.6% +4.9 pp Aligned
Noteć Czarnków 39.5% 33.8% +5.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Wda Świecie's win probability at 41.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wda Świecie win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Wda Świecie than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Noteć Czarnków; match finished Wda Świecie

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Noteć Czarnków by 10.5 percentage points (50.0% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wda Świecie 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Noteć Czarnków 39.5%
    • xG · Wda Świecie 1.21 — Noteć Czarnków 1.39
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wda Świecie 2.14 · Draw 3.61 · Noteć Czarnków 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Wda Świecie 41.5% · Draw 24.6% · Noteć Czarnków 33.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wda Świecie 2.14 · Draw 3.61 · Noteć Czarnków 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Wda Świecie 41.5% · Draw 24.6% · Noteć Czarnków 33.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wda Świecie win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4923233

Closing Odds 2.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wda Świecie win · Wda Świecie 2–1 Noteć Czarnków
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Wda Świecie vs Noteć Czarnków
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Wda Świecie 1.21 — Noteć Czarnków 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 7 6 1 0 19
2 Wda Świecie 7 5 2 0 17
3 Luzino 7 5 1 1 16
4 Flota Świnoujście 7 4 1 2 13
5 Kluczevia Stargard 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kalisz 7 3 3 1 12
7 Noteć Czarnków 7 4 0 3 12
8 Lech Poznań II 7 3 2 2 11
9 Stargard Szczeciński 7 3 1 3 10
10 Bałtyk Koszalin 7 2 3 2 9
11 Grom Nowy Staw 7 2 1 4 7
12 Kotwica Kórnik 7 2 1 4 7
13 Unia Swarzędz 7 2 1 4 7
14 Gedania Gdansk 7 1 3 3 6
15 Chemik Bydgoszcz 7 1 3 3 6
16 Elana Toruń 7 1 2 4 5
17 Victoria Września 7 1 1 5 4
18 Lipno Stęszew 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Polonia Środa 7 23 11 +12 19
2 Luzino 7 20 8 +12 16
3 Grom Nowy Staw 7 18 19 -1 7
4 Stargard Szczeciński 7 16 15 +1 10
5 Kluczevia Stargard 7 15 13 +2 13
6 Lech Poznań II 7 15 14 +1 11
7 Gedania Gdansk 7 15 19 -4 6
8 Flota Świnoujście 7 14 9 +5 13
9 Noteć Czarnków 7 14 11 +3 12
10 Wda Świecie 7 13 7 +6 17
11 Kalisz 7 13 8 +5 12
12 Kotwica Kórnik 7 12 15 -3 7
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 7 10 15 -5 6
14 Elana Toruń 7 10 17 -7 5
15 Bałtyk Koszalin 7 8 9 -1 9
16 Unia Swarzędz 7 7 12 -5 7
17 Lipno Stęszew 7 7 16 -9 1
18 Victoria Września 7 7 19 -12 4
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions